000 AGXX40 KNHC 130730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS FINALLY LIFTED NE AND OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO SW N ATLC...WHERE IT IS NOW SHIFTING E...WITH TRAILING MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL GULF THEN S ALONG 90W INTO FAR SE MEXICO. TROUGH WILL BE FORCED SE AND WEAKEN NEXT FEW DAYS AS LONG WAVE TROUGH REALIGNS ALONG E COAST OF U.S. THE REMNANTS OF LINGERING TROUGHING ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM SW FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE CONVERGENCE SE OF THE TROUGH WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW AND DISSIPATE TODAY LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NE GULF TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH SINKS S TO THE NE GULF COAST TUE AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED...THUS NUDGING THE SFC HIGH INTO THE E CENTRAL GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MILD SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS W PORTIONS LATE TUE INTO WED AS FLOW BECOMES SLY W OF 92W AND INCREASES TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE UPPER MEXICAN AND TEXAS COASTS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAVE MOVED INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE TRAILING CONVECTION IS MOVING NW ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE FAR SW CARIB ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 80W EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MODEST LLVL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS E AND NE PORTIONS ATTM. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LLVL JET ACROSS THE SW CARIB ALONG ABOUT 14-15N WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE REINVIGORATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. A RECENT 0220 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED 20 KT ELY WINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIB S OF 15N...BUT DID NOT SAMPLE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 25-30 KT WINDS SHOULD PRESENTLY BE OCCURRING. FRESH TRADES OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL S OF 17N ACROSS ALL BUT NE PORTIONS TODAY BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS ELONGATED AND STRETCHED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY REACHING THE SRN WINDWARDS MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN. MODEST LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL ADVECT NW AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH PUERTO RICO BY THIS EVENING AND REACH HISPANIOLA TUE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG LLVL WIND SURGE TO 30 KT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND REACH FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE A-B-C ISLANDS BY WED EVENING. STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NW MOTION OF THIS WAVE AND COULD PRODUCE ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE E CARIB AND ISLANDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT SE BEHIND THIS SECOND WAVE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... REMNANTS OF THE MONSOONAL GYRE AND LOW HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NE PAST 48 HOURS AND WERE HALFWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE E COAST WITH A TROUGH TRAILING S THEN SW TO THE NE BAHAMAS. A WEAK HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NW OF THIS TROUGH WHILE SE TO S FLOW AT 10-15 KT GENERALLY PREVAIL E AND SE OF THE TROUGH...EXCEPT TO NEAR 20 KT N OF 28N E OF 70W. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE NEXT 24 HOURS DRAGGING THE TROUGH E OF 70W AND LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS W OF THE TROUGH...AND ELYS AT 10-15 KT S OF 22N. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH DISCUSSED ABOVE IN GULF OF MEXICO SECTION WILL SINK INTO NW PORTIONS ALONG 28-29N LATE TUE AND THEN MOVE SE FROM NEAR 30N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY 00Z THU. SW FLOW 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL N OF 28N E AND SE OF THIS FRONTAL TROUGH LATE TUE THROUGH WED WHILE WEAK N TO NE FLOW BUILDS BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH FARTHER SE TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE OFF TO THE E AND ALLOWING ONLY 15 KT TRADES TO BUILD THROUGH THE SRN BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING