000 AGXX40 KNHC 121755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE GULF OVER THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH REACHES FROM THE FLORIDA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 28N STEMMING FROM 1015 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N88W. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG 25N WED AND THU. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK AND PRIMARILY 1-3 FT SEAS. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS WITH NE 15-20 KT WINDS SPURRED BY THE LOCALIZED LOW-LEVEL JET...IN THE FAR NW GULF WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WED AND THU...AND N OF 27N/28N IN THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF WHERE WEAK TROUGHS WILL SKIRT THE AREA FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND ALSO OVER BELIZE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE GULF SECTION ABOVE WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N ALONG 80W WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF THE WAVE RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH W OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MON. OTHERWISE...A LOW-LEVEL WIND SURGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 80W AS INDICATED BY BUOY OBS AND A RECENT WINDSAT PASS WITH 15-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD WHILE BECOMING CONFINED S OF 17N/18N THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 12 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THAT AREA TONIGHT...MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT AND TUE...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED AND THU. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 31N72W EXTENDS A TROUGH TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N77W CONTINUING TO SE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N E OF THE TROUGH. THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE NE MON AND MON NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N70W IS SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 70W. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE E SETTING UP ALONG 25N TUE THROUGH THU RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE WATERS...2-4 PRIMARILY E HALF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE N OF 28N WHERE LOW PRES WILL DIVE SE FROM THE CAROLINAS DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS THAT AREA WED AND THU. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE SW 15-20 KT WINDS AHEAD OF IT BUILDING SEAS TO 4-6 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY