000 AGXX40 KNHC 120804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 404 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA EMBEDDED IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE GULF...EXTENDING SW ACROSS SE MEXICO. UPPER LOW TO LIFT OUT ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO SW N ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER TROUGH LINGERING FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS SW ACROSS EXTREME SRN FLORIDA THEN TO THE N COAST OF YUCATAN...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. THIS SCENARIO IS YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. TROUGH TO DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS NW TODAY LEAVING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO DOMINATE THE BASIN FOR NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS W AND NW GULF WED. EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT WHERE SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENTS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... MUCH OF BASIN GRADUALLY DRYING AFTER NEARLY 2 WEEKS OF MONSOONAL GYRE...THAT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TO N-NE ACROSS NW BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC. WEAK PERTURBATION HAS MOVED W TO WNW ACROSS S AMERICA AND INTERACTED WITH COLOMBIAN LOW AND LLVL JET TO BECOME ENHANCED ACROSS SW CARIB...WITH TROPICAL WAVE LOOKING CHARACTERISTICS. FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND FAR EPAC NEXT 48 HOURS. LLVL WIND SURGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 80W PAST 24 HOURS WITH 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWING 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB WITH LOW BIAS LIKELY SUGGESTING 25-30 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TRADES TO CONTINUE ACROSS S AND CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT LATE TUE. SEAS TO BUILD TO 9 -12 FT ACROSS SRN CARIB THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING. SOMEWHAT BENIGN TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WILL CONTINUE W TO WNW AND MOVE ACROSS E CARIB AND S AMERICA NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOST ASSOCIATED WEATHER CONFINED TO S AMERICA AND IN CONVERGENT BANDS MOVING NW ACROSS THE E CARIB. NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY MON THROUGH MON EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N.. SW N ATLC... 1010 MB LOW IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE AWAY FROM FAR NW BAHAMAS WITH TRAILING TROUGH TO THE SW ACROSS EXTREME SRN FLORIDA...AND ANOTHER TROUGH ARCHING NE THEN E THEN SE TO NEAR 26N68W. CONVERGENCE ALONG N FLANKS OF THIS SHEARLINE LIKE FEATURE CONTINUES TO YIELD ACTIVE CONVECTION. THIS COMPLEX PATTERN TO LIFT OFF TO THE NE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER SHIFTING WITH IT. HOWEVER...LLVL WEAKNESS ALONG ABOUT 23N E OF 60W WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE BEFORE GIVING WAY TO BUILDING ATLC RIDGE. UPPER LOW ACROSS NE GULF WILL SHIFT INTO SW N ATLC TONIGHT THEN SWEEP E THROUGH TUE TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT LINGERING COMPLEX LOW PRES TUE....WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRAILING BEHIND AND SWEEPING ACROSS FAR N PORTIONS. EXCEPT FOR SE TO E WINDS NEAR 20 KT N AND NE OF THE SHEARLINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON AFTERNOON BEFORE SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND AFFECTS FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING