000 AGXX40 KNHC 111815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. THE LOW IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND A LINGERING TUTT AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE GULF SUN THROUGH MON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SITUATED S OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE WEAK HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH NEAR THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE SLOWLY N-NW INTO THE FAR SE WATERS EARLY SUN THEN DISSIPATE MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WRN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE STRONG LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SW WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH GULF UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS. DEEP LAYERED S TO SW FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NE ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 76W AND FRESH TO STRONG 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. AS THE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIB MOVES OUT OF THE REGION WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...REACHING 25 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND EXPAND W TO 80W ON SUN. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A LINGERING TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SLOWLY WEAKENS. TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED S OF 14N ALONG 45W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN AND SUN NIGHT BUT WILL ENCOUNTER SUBSIDENCE AND A STABILIZING REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA. SW N ATLC... 1009 MB LOW IS CLEARLY EVIDENT FROM ANIMATED VISUAL SAT IMAGERY NEAR 28N78W. THE LOW LACKS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE DISPALCED FAR NE OF THE CENTER ALONG AND NORTH OF A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO AROUND 28N68W. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE ALSO DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT E TO SE WINDS 20-25 KT ALONG THE N SIDE OF THIS ZONE WITH SEAS 6-8 FT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE HINTED AT THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NE THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL LIFT SLOWLY NE AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT. ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD W OF 60W LATER IN THE WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL