000 AGXX40 KNHC 110806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 406 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A LARGER TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SUN AND MON...AND LEAVING A LINGERING TUTT AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA AND INTO NW CARIB...LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ALL BUT STRAITS AND KEYS WHERE NE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT. LIGHT WINDS YIELDING SMALL 1-3 FT SEAS OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT NEAR THE FLORIDA STRAITS... WHERE SEAS ARE AROUND 4-7 FT. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE GULF...BUT REMAINS ABOUT ONE FOOT TOO LOW IN THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT AS A WEAK HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NE GULF. LOW PRES TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE SLOWLY N-NW INTO THE FAR SE WATERS EARLY SUN...THEN DISSIPATE MON. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...WITH WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KT AND SEAS DIMINISHING TO 3 FT OR LESS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WRN CUBA SW ACROSS THE NW CARIB WHERE THE REMNANT OF AN OLD SURFACE CAN BE SEEN IN STLT IMAGERY. STRONG LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SW WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH GULF UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS. DEEP LAYERED S TO SW FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION FOR PAST SEVERAL DAYS OFF TO THE NE...ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW SELY FLOW AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE NE CARIB WHILE FRESHENING FLOW ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PORTIONS WAS PARTIALLY CAPTURED AT 0120 UTC OFF OF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. AS THE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIB MOVES OUT OF THE REGION WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...REACHING 25 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON AND EXPAND W TO 80W SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A LINGERING TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEPS THE MID-ATLC RIDGE AT BAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN AND SUN NIGHT BUT WILL ENCOUNTER SUBSIDENCE AND A STABILIZING REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA. SW N ATLC... FORECAST DILEMMA OF PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN WHERE SURFACE LOW WOULD DEVELOP ALONG TROUGH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND INTO NW CARIB...AND HOW MUCH WOULD IT INTENSIFY. CURRENTLY...STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS LLVL LOW FORECAST BY MODELS HAS MOVED N ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WITH THROUGH TRAILING SW ACROSS THE STRAITS AND WRN CUBA. A TROUGH AND POSSIBLY MORE APTLY DESCRIBED SHEAR LINE EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 26N72W THEN SE...WITH E TO SE WINDS 20-25 KT ALONG THE N SIDE OF THIS ZONE...AND SEAS 6-8 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO FLARE E THROUGH SE OF THIS LOW AND TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...UNDER STRONG LARGE SCALE SWLY WIND SHEAR. RIDGE ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF LOW ALLOWING FOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS BAHAMAS. MODELS HAVE FLIRTED WITH DEEPENING THIS LOW PAST FEW DAYS BUT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN AS LOW MOVES GRADUALLY N-NE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN IS PICKED UP AND MOVES MORE QUICKLY NE. INTERESTINGLY...DOUBLE POINT IN TROUGHING BETWEEN THIS LOW AND AN OLD TROUGH AXIS STRUNG OUT TO THE E AND SE...NEAR 26N71W...HAS BEEN FOCUS FOR SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CENTER BY MODELS...AND REMAINS ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. THIS COMPLEX LOW PRES ZONE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NE WITH SFC LOW OVER NW BAHAMAS AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT EARLY MON...AND WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD W OF 60W LATER IN THE WEEK. LOOK FOR 20 KT E-SE WINDS AND SEAS 6-8 FT TO PERSIST N OF THE SHEAR LINE AND ACROSS ANY SECONDARY LOW THAT MAY BE DEVELOPING ATTM...AND SHIFT GRADUALLY NE TODAY...LEAVING QUICKLY WEAKENING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL FLORIDA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING