000 AGXX40 KNHC 101818 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A LARGER TROUGH ACROSS THE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SUN AND MON. SMALL 1-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT NEAR THE FLORIDA STRAITS... WHERE 20 KT E WINDS ARE GENERATING SEAS AROUND 4-7 FT. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE GULF...BUT REMAINS ABOUT ONE FOOT TOO LOW IN THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT AS A WEAK HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NE GULF. LOW PRES TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE SLOWLY N-NW INTO THE FAR SE WATERS SAT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD SUN. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...WITH WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KT AND SEAS DIMINISHING TO 3 FT OR LESS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS MOVED NE ACROSS CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1415 UTC INDICATED 15-20 KT WINDS ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. AS THE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIB MOVES OUT OF THE REGION WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...REACHING 25 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT AFTERNOON AND EXPAND INTO W CENTRAL PORTIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A LINGERING TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEPS THE MID-ATLC RIDGE AT BAY. SW N ATLC... LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ANIMATED VISUAL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRES FORMING IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W...AS EXPECTED BY GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N70W WILL DRIFT SLOWLY AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS N-NW. MODERATE PRES GRADIENT N AND NE OF THE NEW LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN ELONGATED ZONE OF MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. NO SIGNIFICANT TO LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SO FOLLOWED PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...AS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET...MOVING A TROUGH INTO STRAITS AND NW BAHAMAS TONIGHT THEN INTO S FLORIDA WITH THE LOW NE OF THE NRN BAHAMAS BY SAT NIGHT. 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT WILL BE FOUND N AND NE OF THE LOW AND ELONGATED ZONE OF STRONGER WINDS. LOW WILL NE OF AREA SUN NIGHT WITH TROUGH LINGERING TO THE SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRIMARILY E TO NE OF THE NEW LOW. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL