000 AGXX40 KNHC 100744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LOW ACROSS BASIN FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THROUGH SAT AND GRADUALLY SHARPEN THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NE SUN. AT LLVLS...WEAK HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NE GULF NEAR 29N86W EXTENDING WNW ACROSS SRN LOUISIANA. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND SMALL SEAS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING 15-20 KT ENE WINDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING NEAR 4-7 FT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE GULF...EXCEPT ABOUT A FOOT TOO LOW IN THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE A STRONGER ELY FETCH IS OCCURRING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT AS A WEAK HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NE GULF. WEAK LOW PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE SLOWLY N-NW AND WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AND MOVE INTO THE FAR SE WATERS SAT...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY N SUN. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE RIDGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE E-NE WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER FAR SE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE TROUGH MOVES INTO STRAITS AND WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW PRES TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS A WEAK 1008 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN IT NEAR 20N81W. PERSISTENT UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW FROM OCCURRING...BUT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND NE OF THE TROUGH AND LOW...AND WILL AFFECT THE E HALF OF CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AT 15-20 KT ALONG COLOMBIA AND WRN VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT SLOWLY N AND NW NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE S AND CENTRAL CARIB...REACHING TO 25 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT AFTERNOON AND EXPANDING INTO W CENTRAL PORTIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER OUT OF AREA. SIMILAR LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS LINGERING TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ATLC TO N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS PERSISTS AND KEEPS ATLC RIDGE AT BAY TO THE FAR E. SW N ATLC... 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N69W WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS TROUGH ACROSS NW CARIB AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LIFTS N-NW. NEW LOW PRES AREA IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TODAY...WITH MODERATE PRES GRADIENT N AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER CONTINUING TO PRODUCE AN ELONGATED ZONE OF FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS...EXTREME S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS. 00Z RUN OF GLOBAL MODELS DIFFERING ON LOCATION OF TROUGH AND LOW NEXT 72 HOURS...AND HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET...MOVING TROUGH INTO STRAITS ND NW BAHAMAS BY 00Z TONIGHT THEN INTO S FLORIDA WITH LOW TO THE NE OF THE NRN BAHAMAS BY 00Z SUN. WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT WILL BE FOUND N OF THE LOW AND THIS ELONGATED ZONE OF FRESH WINDS...A.K.A. SHEARLINE. LOW THEN MOVES NE OF AREA BY 00Z MON WITH TROUGH LINGERING TO THE SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SE OF TROUGH AND E TO NE OF LOW. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING