000 AGXX40 KNHC 091750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK E-W RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 30N PER EARLY PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND SMALL SEAS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT MAINTAINS 15-20 KT ENE WINDS NEAR THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING NEAR 4-7 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE GULF...EXCEPT ABOUT A FOOT TOO LOW IN THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE A STRONGER E FETCH IS OCCURRING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MON AS A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WEAK LOW PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE SLOWLY NW AND WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AND MOVE INTO THE FAR SE WATERS SAT...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS SUN. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE RIDGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE E-NE WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER FAR SE WATERS THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW PRES TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS OVER CENTRAL CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS HAS A WEAK 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN IT NEAR 19N83W. PERSISTENT UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW FROM OCCURRING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE E OF THE LOW ENHANCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0200 UTC SHOWED CYCLONIC 15-20 KT WINDS E OF THE CENTER NEAR JAMAICA. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE NW INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SAT. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING BUILDS SW TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC...REACHING 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS STEADILY BUILDING TOWARD 8 TO 10 FT N OF VENEZUELA. SW N ATLC... 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N70W WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH FRI THEN SHIFT SE THROUGH SAT WHILE WEAKENING. NEW LOW PRES AREA IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W FRI WITH MODERATE PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPING N AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER AS THE HIGH SLIDES SE. GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE LOW N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W THROUGH SUN THEN NORTH OF THE AREA LATE SUN. LATEST MODEL RUNS AT 0600 UTC HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF E TO NE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. 35 KT GALES ARE NO LONGER DEPICTED IN THE GFS MODEL...AND THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING THE AGREEMENT WITH OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. PREVIOUS DECISION TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE REGARDING WINDS AND SEAS APPEARS TO BE THE RIGHT CHOICE HERE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALL CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...BUT FOR NOW FCST LOOKS SOLID. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL