000 AGXX40 KNHC 081803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... HPC-NHC CONFERENCE CALL SUGGESTED GOING WITH A WEAKER VERSION OF THE GFS SOLUTION OVER THE SW N ATLC DAYS 3-5. WHILE THE GFS CARRIES A 30-KT LOW BY THE TIME REACHES THE BAHAMAS...THE SYSTEM WAS TAPERED DOWN IN THE MANUAL PROGS AND THE AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS AVAILABLE ONLINE. CARIBBEAN... GOING WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE LOW IN THE SW N ATLC DICTATES KEEPING THE SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND A BIT LONGER...DISSIPATING IT TO A TROUGH OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WAS ON THE STRONG SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE NE TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS BECAUSE IT BUILDS RIDGING IN S OF A STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE SW N ATLC THAN WHAT IS PREFERRED. THE PROGS REFLECT FRESH TRADES AND NOT THE STRONG TRADES SEEN IN THE 12Z GFS BY SUN. TROPICAL N ATLC... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON DEVELOPING A LOW PRES SYSTEM JUST N OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS STILL DO NOT REVEAL A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1312 UTC SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AT LEAST 25 KT S OF THE TROUGH THAT WAS FROM 25N60W TO THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA AT 1200 UTC. THE MODELS WEAKEN THE LOW BY FRI AND ALLOW ITS REMNANT TROUGH TO BECOME CAPTURED IN THE FLOW TOWARD THE SW N ATLC...WITH HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE N BY THE WEEKEND. GULF OF MEXICO... THE LARGEST FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO LIE WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE NHC-HPC CONFERENCE CALL SUGGESTED A GFS-TYPE SOLUTION WITH THE ENERGY MOVING N FROM THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE SW N ATLC. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS. THE LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD DISSIPATE S OF THE GULF AND ONCE THE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE BAHAMAS FRI...WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FL SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER