000 AGXX40 KNHC 061836 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THU...THEN WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 30N THU AND FRI. MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONAL PLATFORMS INDICATE LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CALM SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA. BUOY REPORTS INDICATE SEAS TO BE 1-3 FT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN ZONE WHERE SEAS UP TO 5 FT ARE NOTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW PRESSURE 1007 MB CENTERED NEAR 18N82W REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS. RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES 20 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PREVAILS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS LOW DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A STRONGLY SW-NE TILTED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW...AND MERGE WITH BROAD TROUGHING IN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY. SW N ATLC... WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER THE SW WATERS AND MUCH OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE ESE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRES ENTERS THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE NIGHT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW MAY FORM OVER THE FAR SE WATERS MIDWEEK...THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE TROUGH. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL