000 AGXX40 KNHC 060728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 28N82W SW TO A HIGH CENTER OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF NEAR 27N95W. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL REPORTS FROM BUOYS THROUGHOUT INDICATE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN ZONE WHERE A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT FOUND THERE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR NE-E 15 KT WINDS WITH WINDS TO 20 KT NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AS WAS SUGGESTED BY AN 0308 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT FOR THOSE WATERS DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BUOY REPORTS SHOW THE RANGES OF SEAS TO BE 1-3 FT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN ZONE WHERE SEAS ARE MAXING UP TO 6 FT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 30N THU AND FRI. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE GULF...AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS QUITE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN PORTIONS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE CARIBBEAN AS A WEAK 1006 MB LOW REMAINS ABOUT STATIONARY NEAR 17N81W...OR ABOUT 175 MILES S OF GRAND CAYMAN. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO COSTA RICA...AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE LOW NE TO HISPANIOLA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE COVERING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND FAR NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY N OF 11N AND PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA TO WITHIN 150 NM S OF JAMAICA. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT N AND NE OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN ELY WINDS 20-25 KT PRIMARILY N OF 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS GENERALLY OF 5-8 FT. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WNW AT 13 KT IS JUST CROSSING THE FAR SE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS OF THAT ZONE THROUGH TODAY AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACTS TO WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WITH JUST PERHAPS BRIEF INSTANCES OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. THE WAVE WILL THEN LIFT NW AND MERGE WITH THE CARIBBEAN TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ENE FROM THE LOW AT 17N81W ON TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE RELATIVELY ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH THE LOW ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS AND LOW SEAS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH FRI. SW N ATLC... FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE SW WATERS AND MUCH OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1016 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N75W AND THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MAXIMUM SEAS OBSERVED ARE 6 FT W OF ABOUT 79W S OF 24N. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS NOTED TO EXTEND FROM 26N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ITS EXTREME EASTERN PORTION PULLS TO THE E OF THE AREA. THE WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE ESE THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRES JUST E OF THE CAROLINA COAST DIVES SE REACHING TO NEAR 31N73W BY EARLY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE SE AND DISSIPATE BY TUE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THROUGH FRI AS A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS AND TRACK TO THE NE. THE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL ONCE AGAIN PERK UP AS THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH THE LOW. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF WINDS TO 20 KT ONCE AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS TUE THROUGH FRI. THESE WINDS MAY ACTUALLY ATTAIN HIGHER SPEEDS DEPENDING IF THE LOW PRES THAT FORMS DEEPENS MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. FOR MOVEMENT OF THIS NEW EXPECTED LOW WILL DISCOUNT THE FAST GFS SOLN AND OPT FOR THE SLOWER SPEED SOLNS OF THE NOGAPS AND EUROPEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE