000 AGXX40 KNHC 050729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATE ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF ZONES WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS GENERATING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT. THIS WAS INDICATED BY AN 0328 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT AS THE GRADINTE WEAKENS. BUOY REPORTS SHOW SEAS OF 3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM 22N-27N...AND 1-2 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE AND EASTERN PORTIONS WHERE SEAS UP TO 7 FT ARE PRESENT. THESE HIGHER SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH MON. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES LOOK REASONABLE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF WITH THE NAH AND UKMET BEING THE ONES THAT CAPTURE THE 7 FT SEAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AGAIN THE MAIN ISSURE WITH THIS FEATURE IS AMPLE DEEP MOSITURE OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THAT IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TSTMS EVIDENT BETWEEN 69W-80W. A TIGHT GRADIENT N OF 17N W OF 73W IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT THERE AND SHOULD LINGER INTO EARLY THU. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY WILL BRING VERY LOW VISIBILITES AND GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE IN A GENERAL N TO NE FASHION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE HAS JUST ENTERED THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N62W TO 16N61W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO FAR TO THE W BEFORE IT THEN RECONFIGURES INTO AN E TO W TROUGH OVER NORTHERN SECTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMNING WEEK. THE TROUGH THEN LIFTS NWD INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE WED AND THU. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS DESCRIBED ABOVE N OF 17N ...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THESE ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST N ATLC... FRESH NE TO E WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES JUST N OF AREA AND THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGHEST SEAS ARE MAXED OUT AT 6 FT OVER WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH TUE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM 30N60W TO 28N79W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO MON. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL BE NUDGED ESE SUN EVENING AND INTO MON AND TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND WEAKENS AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 31N74W BY WED. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE