000 AGXX40 KNHC 031828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1013 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 23N92W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US AND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS IN THE SW GULF AND OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING FRESH WINDS AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENABLING WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE SE GULF. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH THE LOW CENTER ANALYZED NEAR 16N88W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES OF 1008 MB. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE...AND MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES TO JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA..AND HISPANIOLA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST N ATLC... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR SW PART OF THE AREA AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD LATE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL