000 AGXX40 KNHC 030730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1013 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 23N92W EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOVING SW AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR NE WATERS...AND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE AREA'S WINDS AND SEAS. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A SLIGHTER TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN PORTIONS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS THERE INTO EARLY SUN. MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT TO THE N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON...AND TO THE NW GULF TUE. NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SE AND FAR S MIDDLE ZONES WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 FT HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE IN THE STRONGER ELY FLOW. BY SAT MORNING THE GUIDANCE CATCHES UP...ELEVATING THE SEAS IN THE THOSE AREA AS NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH THE LOW CENTER ANALYZED NEAR 14N81W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES OF 1008 MB. A TROUGH EXETNDS FROM THE LOW NNE TO NEAR 20N80W. THE 0228 HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS REVEALED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. TO THE E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME STRONG...ARE NOTED AS FAR E AS 67W. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN NE NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA THROUGH MON...WITH NO MAJOR INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. FOR THE TIME BEING...THERE IS IS A LOW CHANCE...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE JUST SE OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN SAT. THE WAVE ENERGY SHOULD THEN TRANSLATE INTO A TROUGH AXIS THAT BECOMES ALIGNED E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SAT NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUN AS THEN LIFTS NWD INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE MON AND TUE. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ZONES EXCEPT NEAR THE SHOWER AND TSTMS AND THE LOW IF IT WERE TO INTENSIFY IN THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST. SOUTHWEST N ATLC... FRESH NE TO E WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES JUST N OF AREA AND THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH HE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND THE HIGH PRES MOVES TOWARD THE SE UNITED STATES. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE AROUND 6 FT S OF 27N THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT THEREAFTER. RIDGING WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF 26N...BUT WILL BE NUDGED ESE BEGINNING LATE SUN AND INTO EARLY NEXT AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE