000
AGXX40 KNHC 021842
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 24N89W IS PRODUCING LIMITED 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE W-SW AT 
15-20 KT...REACHING THE NE COAST OF MEXICO LATE FRI. A TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRES TO NEAR 29N88W WILL MOVE IN TANDEM 
WITH THE LOW PRES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR 
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...OF THIS 
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON 
BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...AND LOW PRES OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN 
THE SE GULF. A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SE 
UNITED STATES SUN...ALLOWING THIS FLOW TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY 
THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS 
DISORGANIZED NEAR 15N82W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES OF 1008 MB. THE 
1134 WINDSAT PASS SHOWED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS LOW WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THIS SYSTEM 
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT 
EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
HISPANIOLA...PARTICULARLY N OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. STRONG 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM 
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN NE NICARAGUA AND 
JAMAICA THROUGH MON...WITH NO MAJOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER... 
THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...OF THIS SYSTEM 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AREAS OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE 
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN 
ADDITION...EXPECT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...HIGHER NEAR 
THE TSTMS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 18N AND WILL MERGE WITH THE 
LOW PRES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE 
ACROSS S PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AND INTO THE SE 
CARIBBEAN SAT. THE WAVE SHOULD INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING WEAK 
LOW PRES SUN IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THAT WILL MOVE NE 
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MON.

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC...
FRESH NE TO E WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES JUST N OF AREA AND 
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN 
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRES OVER THE 
SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND THE HIGH PRES MOVES 
TOWARD THE SE UNITED STATES. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE AROUND 7 FT S 
OF 26N THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA N 
OF 26N...BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOW PRES 
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS S OF 26N TO DIMINISH 
SLIGHTLY SUN INTO MON.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER GR