000 AGXX40 KNHC 020659 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE NE GULF INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DECREASING LIGHTING STRIKES AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ATTEST TO THIS SYSTEM STARTING TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH NEW CONVECTION IS NOTED OFF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA WHERE OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION IS CONVERGING WITH LIGHT NW FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO HAVE OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE SW GULF THROUGH FRI...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION...WINDS...OR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH SAT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES SUN...ALLOWING THIS FLOW TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS DISORGANIZED NEAR 14N82W WITH AN ESTIMATED STAYING STEADY AROUND PRES OF 1008 MB. A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS NE TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...IN PART DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAD BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL PLACING THE LOW BETWEEN NE NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH NO MAJOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT DRIFTS N. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO...EXPECT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...AND INTO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SAT ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... FRESH NE TO E WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DRIFTS N ALONG 80W. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE AROUND 7 FT S OF 26N THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF 26N...BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS S OF 26N TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SUN INTO MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN