000 AGXX40 KNHC 011829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHING OVER THE N WATERS WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS NOTED PER SURFACE DATA. GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED S OF 25N ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...A SMALL LOW PRES AREA APPROACHING THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL EMERGE INTO THE NE GULF TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS PROBABLY AS AN OPEN TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW...I PREFER TO WAIT IN ORDER TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM SURVIVES AFTER IT CROSSES N FLORIDA BEFORE I INCLUDE SOME WORDING IN THE FORECAST. SO FAR...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVER THE FAR NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE REMNANT CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD... THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN LOW PRES IN THE CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS DISORGANIZED NEAR 13N81W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES OF 1008 MB. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT PLACING THE LOW BETWEEN NE NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL SHOW THE LOW DEEPENING ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS N. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO...EXPECT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. ELSEWHERE...A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE MIGRATING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ONE NEAR 77W IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS DEFINED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS LIGHT TO MODERATE MONSOONAL TROUGH FLOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. THE OTHER WAVE ALONG 69W S OF 17N IS BETTER DEFINED...WITH E TO SE WINDS OF 20 KT BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND SOME SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE. A SWATH OF GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT E TO SE WINDS WILL PERSIST MAINLY W OF 68W OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE THE LOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS FURTHER W. THIS WILL DIMINISH BY FRI AS THE LOW SHIFTS N AND THE GRADIENT LOOSENS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE WITHIN 30NM OF LOW CENTER. IN ADDITION...EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALONG WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY N OF 28N W OF 80W. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DRIFTS N ALONG 79W/80W. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE AROUND 7 FT S OF 26N THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF 26N...BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR