000 AGXX40 KNHC 010728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1019 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...ALLOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...N OF 25N. GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW IS NOTED S OF 25N ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM 03Z...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED A COUPLE OF SMALL AREAS OF 25 KT WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OFF THE W COAST OF YUCATAN. MEANWHILE A SMALL LOW PRES TRAILING AN ATTENDANT AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE ATLC ABOUT 300 NNE OF JACKSONVILLE FL. THE 00Z GFS AND RUC/HRRR INITIALIZE THIS FEATURE...AND SHOW IT OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH OFF NE FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS IT MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND INTO THE NE GULF AS A MINIMAL FEATURE. THE ONLY REAL IMPACT WILL BE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVER THE FAR NE GULF LATER TODAY AS THE REMNANT CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD...THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN LOW PRES IN THE CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR 13N81W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES OF 1008 MB. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT PLACING THE LOW BETWEEN NE NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL SHOW THE LOW DEEPENING ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS N...WITH THE UKMET THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. SPORADIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELSEWHERE...A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE MIGRATING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ONE NEAR 76W IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS DEFINED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS LIGHT TO MODERATE MONSOONAL TROUGH FLOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE ANDES. THE OTHER WAVE ALONG 68W IS BETTER DEFINED...WITH 20 KT SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW N OF THE ABC ISLANDS. A SWATH OF GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT E TO SE WINDS WILL PERSIST MAINLY W OF 68W OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE THE LOW DEVELOPS FURTHER W. THIS WILL DIMINISH BY FRI AS THE LOW SHIFTS N AND THE GRADIENT LOOSENS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR 31N77W MOVING TOWARD THE NE FLORIDA COAST...AHEAD OF AN AREA OF WEAK 1017 MB LOW PRES NEAR 32N76W. THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING INTO N FLORIDA LATER TODAY. EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALONG WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE LOW PRES WILL NOT DEEPEN MUCH...BUT WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER N IN THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING THE FLOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND ALLOWING WINDS S OF 22N IN THE SE BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS TO INCREASE BY FRI. RIDGING WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF 26N...BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS IN TURN WILL WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND LOW THE TRADE WINDS S OF 26N TO DIMINISH. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE AROUND 7 FT S OF 26N THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN