000 AGXX40 KNHC 301826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A NEW HIGH PRES CENTER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...DEEP LOW PRES IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...E TO SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN GULF. SURFACE DATA ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS VERIFIED THESE WIND SPEEDS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE REACHING 8 FT OVER THE FAR NW GULF. LOWER WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOTED OVER THE NE GULF...BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STARTING TUE AS THE LOW LIFTS N...AND THE HIGH PRES BUILDS FURTHER W. FRESH NE TO E FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI PRIMARILY S OF 25N AND E OF 90W BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE N AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE CARIBBEAN. SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILD FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA MAY STILL BE BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN BELOW 5 NM OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W TO THE PANAMA CANAL ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP. THE 1442 ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT NORTH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT OF THE STRONGER WINDS...SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 8 TO 10 FT BY TUE. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD INITIALLY BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR SAN ANDRES AND IS THEN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS NWD INTO WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY ALONG 80W TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MARINE INTERESTS OVER THE REGION SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY SINCE ITS POTENTIAL FORMATION COINCIDES WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON AND OVER A REGION THAT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W S OF 13N WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE W THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT REACHING NEAR 68W TUE MORNING...AND NEAR 72W WED MORNING. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC AREA W OF 65W...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND WILL MOVE WWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 27N BY WED... BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N ALONG 79W/80W. IN ADDITION... EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR