000 AGXX40 KNHC 291822 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FRESH TO STRONG SE RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE S-CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SURFACE DATA AND THE 1244 UTC WINDSAT PASS CONFIRMED THE EXISTENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. A NEW 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM NEAR THE CAROLINAS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...KEEPING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE W OF 90W BY MON. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 9 FT OVER THE NW GULF GIVEN THE AMPLE FETCH AND DURATION OF THE 20-25 KT SE FLOW. AS WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF DIMINISH TUE INTO WED...LOW PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INDUCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO SHIFT NE TO E AND INCREASE TO 20 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS FLOW DIMINISHING BY THU AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS N OF THE AREA. SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILD FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA MAY STILL BE BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN BELOW 5 NM OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... MAIN WEATHER FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 13N77W TO 10N83W ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION... PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN AROUND 4 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT SAN ANDRES AND THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW LINGERING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN E OF SAN ANDRES...THEN DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS N INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA BETWEEN NOW AND THU. THIS SHOULD TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... ALLOWING E TO SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MON. SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDINGLY WITH 8 TO 10 FT BY TUE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W S OF 13N WILL MIGRATE W THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN VENEZUELA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 15 TO 20 KT E FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MAINLY DUE TO ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SW FLOW FROM THE E PACIFIC TO HELP DEVELOP THE WEAK LOW PRES IN SW CARIBBEAN. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC AREA W OF 65W...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST N OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ROUGHLY EXTENDING FROM 22N68W TO 19N71W. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER IN PLACE WHILE THE RIDGE RETREATS MORE TO THE N. AS A RESULT... SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY N OF 25N TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS S OF 25N BY LATE TUE INTO WED AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND DRIFTS N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR