000 AGXX40 KNHC 290556 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE NW GULF BETWEEN 1015 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF S OF APALACHICOLA AND LOW PRES MIGRATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN GULF TO INCREASE TODAY INTO TUE. SEAS REACH AS HIGH AS 8 FT OVER THE NW GULF GIVEN THE AMPLE FETCH AND DURATION OF THE 20 KT SE FLOW. AS WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF DIMINISH TUE INTO WED...LOW PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INDUCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO SHIFT NE TO E AND INCREASE TO 20 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS FLOW DIMINISHING BY THU AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS N OF THE AREA. SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILD FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA MAY STILL BE BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN BELOW 5 NM OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W S OF 13N WILL MIGRATE W THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN VENEZUELA TODAY...BUT HAVE A MINIMAL LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 15 TO 20 KT E FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MAINLY DUE TO ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATING W THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH TROUGHING OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND SW FLOW FROM THE E PACIFIC TO HELP DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRES IN SW CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW LINGERING NEAR THE PANAMA COAST THROUGH MON...THEN DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS N INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING E TO SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MON. SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDINGLY WITH 8 TO 10 FT BY TUE. LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SW SHEAR ALOFT...AND STILL SHOW THE LOW NOT DEEPENING APPRECIABLY. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC AREA W OF 65W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 60W AND 70W S OF 25N TONIGHT AND WILL LINGER IN PLACE WHILE THE RIDGE RETREATS MORE TO THE N. AS A RESULT... SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY N OF 25N SUN THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS S OF 25N BY WED AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND DRIFTS N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN