000 AGXX40 KNHC 281833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27N. BUOYS OVER THE NW GULF AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT SE RETURN FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 KT...BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF BY MON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NE BY MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SHIFTS INTO THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING SOME SMOKE FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO COVERING THE SW ZONE...BUT THIS MAY BE STARTING TO ABATE. DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 20 KT NEAR THE COAST OF YUCATAN IN THE EVENINGS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 13N75W TO 10.5N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. A LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THE COMPUTER MODELS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN PROBABLY ALONG THIS TROUGH. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED N OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO AROUND 16N. SW MONSOON FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. IT IS EXPECTED FORM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...DEEPEN TO AROUND 1007 TO 1008 MB AND STAY OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL MIGRATE INTO THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SW OF JAMAICA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT DEEPEN MUCH FURTHER GIVEN STRONG SHEAR ALOFT AND THAT SUPPORTING SW FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO ENHANCE E TO SE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MON. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC AREA W OF 65W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL WATERS TO THE N COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS AND WILL LINGER OVER THE SE PART WHILE THE RIDGE RETREATS MORE TO THE N. AS A RESULT... SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY N OF 25N SUN THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS S OF 25N BY WED AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND DRIFTS N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR/EC