000 AGXX40 KNHC 280636 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27N. BUOYS OVER THE NW GULF INDICATE THAT SE RETURN FLOW IS STARTING TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT...BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF PRESENTLY. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGHOUT THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NE BY MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SHIFTS INTO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE INCREASING FETCH AND DURATION OF THE FRESH E TO SE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF BY MON...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WINDS BACK MORE NE TO E ACROSS THE GULF AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THE LOW PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE N. MOST OF THE LATEST REPORTS FROM OIL PLATFORMS AND LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN GULF SHOW UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS WHERE 4 TO 5 NM IN HAZE WAS REPORTED. SMOKE FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF...BUT THIS MAY BE STARTING TO ABATE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW AREAS OF 20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO MIGRATING INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA ENHANCING SURFACE WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE NE COAST OF VENEZUELA W OF TRINIDAD. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FROM 55W THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN. SW MONSOON FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. IT IS EXPECTED FORM TODAY...DEEPEN TO AROUND 1007 TO 1008 MB AND STAY OFF WESTERN PANAMA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL MIGRATE INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SW OF JAMAICA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT DEEPEN MUCH FURTHER GIVEN STRONG SHEAR ALOFT AND THAT SUPPORTING SW FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO ENHANCE E TO SE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 10 FT WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MON. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC AREA W OF 65W. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS N OF 22N ALONG 68W HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AT THE SFC N OF 22N E OF 71W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY AIDED IN PART BY THE MOVEMENT TO THE SE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE SE PART WHILE THE RIDGE RETREATS MORE TO THE N. AS A RESULT... SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY N OF 25N SUN THROUGH MID WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN