000 AGXX40 KNHC 271819 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27N. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE N CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT...THEN WILL LIFT N. MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF...PRIMARILY OVER THE NW GULF...BY SAT AS DEEP LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER NW TEXAS. BY LATE SUN...MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW WILL COVER THE MOST OF THE GULF...BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH...AND LOWER PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE INCREASED WINDS AND LONGER FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT OVER THE NW GULF BY MON. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NE BY TUE...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE AREAS OF SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 5 NM OR LESS IN THE W GULF W OF 90W/91W THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SE TRADES COVER THE AREA FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS A TROUGH S OF 14N ALONG 71W MOVES A BIT MORE TO THE NW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES MIGRATE INTO NORTHERN S AMERICA...WITH THEIR NORTHERN PORTION EXTENDING INTO THE S CARIBBEAN WATERS. BY SAT...AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES WILL START TO FORM OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...ENHANCED BY SW MONSOONAL TROUGH FLOW FROM THE E PACIFIC. THIS WILL BECOME THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BY SUN. GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW THIS LOW DEEPENING ALTHOUGH THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ARE FAIRLY MEASURED WHILE THE NOGAPS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE LOW MIGRATE N TO THE NICARAGUAN COAST BY TUE...AND WHILE THE LOW DOES NOT DEEPEN APPRECIABLY...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGING N OF THE AREA IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS FROM THE SE CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY TUE...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH TUE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC AREA W OF 65W. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS N OF 22N ALONG 68W HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AT THE SFC N OF 22N E OF 71W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY AIDED IN PART BY THE MOVEMENT TO THE SE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE SE PART WHILE THE RIDGE RETREATS MORE TO THE N. AS A RESULT... SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY N OF 25N SUN THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY