000 AGXX40 KNHC 270717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27N. A FEW REMNANT TSTMS ARE NOTED OFF THE WESTERN PANHANDLE COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT...THEN LIFT N. MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF...PRIMARILY OVER THE NW GULF...BY SAT AS DEEP LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER NW TEXAS. BY LATE SUN...MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW WILL COVER THE MOST OF THE GULF...BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH...AND LOWER PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE INCREASED WINDS AND LONGER FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT OVER THE NW GULF BY MON. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NE BY TUE...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE AREAS OF SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 5 NM OR LESS IN THE W GULF W OF 91W/92W THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SE TRADES COVER THE AREA FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. E TO SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL START TO INCREASE GRADUALLY LATER TODAY...AS A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES MIGRATE INTO NORTHERN S AMERICA. BY SAT...AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES WILL START TO FORM OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...ENHANCED BY SW MONSOON TROUGH FLOW FROM THE E PACIFIC. THIS WILL BECOME THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BY SUN. GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW THIS LOW DEEPENING ALTHOUGH THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ARE FAIRLY MEASURED WHILE THE NOGAPS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE LOW MIGRATE N TO THE NICARAGUAN COAST BY TUE...AND WHILE THE LOW DOES NOT DEEPEN APPRECIABLY...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGING N OF THE AREA IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS FROM THE SE CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY TUE...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROP N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC TO NE FLORIDA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC AREA W OF 65W. PERSISTENT WEAK LOW PRES IS NOTED IN A 0130Z ASCAT PASS NEAR 25N65W. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR PUERTO RICO FRI AIDED IN PART BY THE MOVEMENT TO THE SE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES. TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST E OF THE AREA WITH THE HELP OF A MEANDERING UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 30N50W. AS A RESULT SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY N OF 25N BY SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN