000 AGXX40 KNHC 261820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL NE OF THE AREA IN THE W CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA THROUGH CLEARWATER BEACH CONTINUING TO THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST HOUR AS THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NW-N AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING THEN WILL DISSIPATE INLAND BY EARLY FRI. EXPECT E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS ALONG WITH 2-5 FT SEAS IN THE W GULF...AND 5-10 KT ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE E GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT. RIDGING WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS LATE SAT THROUGH MON ALLOWING FOR E-SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT (OCCASIONALLY TO 25 KT) OVER THE S AND W PORTIONS OF THE GULF. MEANWHILE AREAS OF SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES OVER SE TEXAS AND NW BELIZE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 5 NM OR LESS IN THE W GULF W OF 91W/92W THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SHARPLY ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW TO THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PERSIST JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHICH IS PUMPING UP MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE E PACIFIC INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW COLOMBIA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND IS ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND 4-7 FT SEAS IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY AND E-SE 5-15 KT WINDS S OF THE BOUNDARY AS CAPTURED BY A 1015Z WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE BASIN TONIGHT MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MON. AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN...EXPECT E-SE WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE TO INCREASE TO 20 KT AND CORRESPONDING SEAS TO BUILD TO AT LEAST 7 FT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NE THROUGH TO A WEAK CUTOFF UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER 30N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXIST ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE BASIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND NEAR THE UPPER CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N64W THROUGH 31N72W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR ORMOND BEACH. EASTERLY 5-15 KT WINDS COVER THE BASIN ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SE PORTION LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT... DISSIPATING BY SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE/BUILD SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES TO THE N STRENGTHENS TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY