000 AGXX40 KNHC 251827 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRES WELL NE OF THE AREA IN THE W CENTRAL ATLC TO ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA TO NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS. E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS EXIST ACROSS THE E GULF WITH 15-20 KT ACROSS THE W GULF AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER W TEXAS MOVES SE TOWARD THE AREA. THE 12Z GFS MODEL NOW PUSHES THE FRONT SLIGHTLY INTO THE FAR NW GULF...STALLING IT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THU...THEN RETREATING BACK TO THE NW-N AS A WARM FRONT THEREAFTER. RIDGING WILL THEN RETURN ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SAT AND SUN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR MEXICO WITH SOLID 20 KT SE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE W GULF BY SUN AND CORRESPONDING SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN SE MEXICO AND BELIZE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 5 NM W OF 91W. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRI...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES WITH 1-2 SEAS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND 3-6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN SAT AND SUN ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS TO FORM IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND RESULTANT SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT. OTHERWISE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE FAR OUTER CIRCULATION OF A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRES NE OF THE AREA NEAR WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS N OF 17N IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THU. A SURFACE TROUGH RELATED TO THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM 19N55W TO NEAR ANGUILLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM E OF THE N CAROLINA COAST TO HONDURAS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS OF HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. REFER TO YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS. 1019 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST NE OF THE AREA AND W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32.5N67W AS CAPTURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY N DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE CURRENT NE-E MORE TO THE E-SE. A WEAK TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE SE PART SAT AND SUN TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS FROM 5-10 KT TO 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3-5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT INSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY