000 AGXX40 KNHC 221853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND KEEP FORECAST GENERALLY STATUS QUO WITH RESPECT TO PRESENT SYNOPTIC REGIME AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WINDS AND SEAS THROUGHOUT AS A WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG 29N WITH A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 28N85W. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE INDICATING SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE WESTERN GULF W OF 91W WITH SUSTAINED 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AS REPORTED BUOY 42001 AT 26N89W ARE PRESENT OVER THE MIDDLE GULF ZONE S OF 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...WHILE S-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE ZONE AND E-SE 10-15 KT IN THE E ZONE EXCEPT OVER THE NE WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE VARIABLE AT 5 KT. LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW SEAS RANGING FROM 3-5 FT IN THE MIDDLE PORTION...TO 5-8 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF ZONE AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL WILL A COLD FRONT E ACROSS TEXAS BY MID WEEK REACHING TO NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THU AFTERNOON. THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO WILL ALLOW THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO RELAX ...AND VEER TO S-SE AT 10-15 KT N OF OF 27N THU AND PRETTY MUCH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE S OF 27N IN THE NW GULF BY THU...AND SE-S 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE MON THROUGH FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK AS IT NEARS THE FAR GULF COAST FRI THEN STALLS AND WEAKENS. EXPECT SEAS TO CONTINUE TO MAX OUT TO POSSIBLY 9 FT IN THE NW ZONE TONIGHT BEFORE LOWERING TO 2-4 FT LATE WED THROUGH THU. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT S OF 27N W OF 87W...AND 1-2 FT ELSEWHERE WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI PER NWW3 GUIDANCE. ON A SIDE NOTE...LARGE TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO STREAM NW TOWARD NE MEXICO AND SE TEXAS FROM WILDFIRES BURNING IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 NM OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN WITH THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE NEAR THE MEXICAN AND S TEXAS COASTS. THE SMOKE SHOULD THIN OUT SOME BY TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THESE AREAS CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER WEAK PRES GRADIENT. A PARTIAL SCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING DEPICTED PRETTY MUCH LIGHT ELY WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND VICINITY WHERE A TIGHTER GRADIENT THERE IS RESULTING IN E-SE WINDS OF 15 KT. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT MON NIGHT. LATEST REPORTS FROM BUOYS THROUGHOUT AND SEA STATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS...AND 3-5 FT IN THE EASTERN PORTION AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO BE A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 17N72W TO 11N75W MOVING W AT 7-10 KT. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MOVING NNE ARE NOTED BETWEEN 71W AND 76W. COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA N-NE ACROSS THIS AREA AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NE ISLANDS AS A RATHER BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH CURRENT E WINDS OF 10-15 KT S OF 17N CONTINUING AND SE-S WINDS OF 10 KT N OF 17N SHIFTING TO NE-E TUE THROUGH WED AND E-SE LATER WED THROUGH FRI AS A WEAK CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH DROPS S INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT N OF 17N TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND 3-5 FT S OF 17N. SEAS THEN WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT TUE THROUGH FRI THROUGHOUT THE AREA. SOUTHWEST N ATLC... PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE WATERS WILL SHIFT TO THE E OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG 30N THROUGH WED...THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY N THU AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MAINLY SLY WINDS OF 10 KT N OF 27N WITH SEAS 2-4 FT...AND ELY WINDS 10-15 KT S OF 27N WITH SEAS 3-5 FT E OF BAHAMAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THU...AND 2 FT W OF BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE