000 AGXX40 KNHC 211900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND KEEP FORECAST GENERALLY STATUS QUO WITH RESPECT TO PRESENT SYNOPTIC REGIME AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WINDS AND SEAS THROUGHOUT AS RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG 29N. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE INDICATING SE WINDS...FOR THE MOST PART AT 10-15 KT EXCEPT S OF 28N W OF 90W WHERE SPEEDS ARE HIGHER IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE TO SUSTAINED 20 KT AT TIMES. LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW SEAS RANGING FROM 3-5 FT IN THE MIDDLE PORTION...TO 5-8 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF ZONE AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. THE ONE CHANGE EXPECT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FOR THE SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF PORTION DURING SUN OR BY EARLY SUN EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA. EXPECT SEAS THERE TO CONTINUE TO MAX OUT TO 8 FT THROUGH MON...AND SEAS TO LOWER TO 0 OR NEAR 9 FT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. ON A SIDE NOTE...LARGE TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO STREAM NW TOWARD NE MEXICO AND SE TEXAS FROM WILDFIRES BURNING IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NW GULF ZONE...AND JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE SW ZONE THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THESE AREAS CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER WEAK PRES GRADIENT. A PARTIAL SCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING DEPICTED PRETTY MUCH LIGHT ELY WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND VICINITY WHERE A TIGHTER GRADIENT THERE IS RESULTING IN E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING SUN AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING. LATEST REPORTS FROM BUOYS THROUGHOUT AND SEA STATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS...AND 3-5 FT IN THE EASTERN PORTION. SEAS HAVE MUCH HIGHER...UP TO 6 OR 7 FT...IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA SW TO 17N71W TO NEAR 10N75W...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE IS ALONG 70W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 10 KT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS. COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA N-NE ACROSS THIS AREA AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NE ISLANDS AS A RATHER BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. REFER TO NWS SAN JUAN FOR LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE INFLUENCES OF THE MOISTURE ON THE PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CATCH UP WITH AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH BY SUN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO JAMAICA. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS THE WAVE SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE CONTINUING WESTWARD TO CENTRAL AMERICA TUE AND WED. THE ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE IS ALSO FANNING OUT OVER THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 17N. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH CURRENT E WINDS OF 10-15 KT FORECAST TO BECOME VARIABLE 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS N OF 17N THROUGH MON...THEN NE-E 5-10 KT TUE THROUGH THU AS A WEAK CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH DROPS S INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT S OF 17N TONIGHT AND SUN...AND 2-4 FT N OF 17N. SEAS THEN HOLD AT THE RANGE OF ABOUT 3-5 FT OVER MUCH OF THESE WATERS WITH THE LOWER RANGE OF SEAS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC... PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE SE WATERS THAT EXETNDS SW TO HISPANIOLA. A COLD FRONT IS JUST CROSSING THE AREA AT 30N BETWEEN 70W-76W WITH QUITE AN EXTENSIVE TSTM COMPLEX ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW WATERS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NW...BEGINS TO TURN EASTWARD. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS E OUT OF THE NE PART LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING...THE TROUGH WILL DO THE SAME AS IT MOST LIKELY THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THESE TWO FEATURES...WEAK RIDGING WILL SETTLE ALONG 30N THROUGH THU...AND BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT. THIS WILL BE SEEN AS MAINLY VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SE-S OVER THE NW CORNER. E WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL BE FOUND S OF 27N WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE 1-3 FT SEAS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE