000 AGXX40 KNHC 210657 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011 UPDATED GULF OF MEXICO MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. 1016 MB HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE FAR NE GULF WITH RIDGING EXTENDING W-NW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT WILL PERSIST IN THE W GULF WITH 10-15 KT E-SE WINDS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT 4-7 FT SEAS IN THE W GULF OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT...WITH 2-4 FT IN THE E GULF. FRESH SE WINDS IN THE W GULF WILL DIMINISH WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST. OTHER THAN THAT...A LARGE AREA OF SMOKE CONTINUES TO STREAM NW TOWARD NE MEXICO AND SE TEXAS FROM WILDFIRES BURNING IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THIS SMOKE WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES OVER THE W GULF WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL DIMINISH LATE SUN. ELSEWHERE IN THE W CARIBBEAN...LIGHT 5-10 KT MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS IN THE E CARIBBEAN. FEATURE-WISE...A TROUGH REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE E BY A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 14N ALONG 69W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS. COPIOUS MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA N-NE ACROSS THIS AREA AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NE ISLANDS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF 70W. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR P.R. AND THE U.S. V.I. WITH 4-6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. REFER TO NWS SAN JUAN FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. THE IS WAVE EXPECTED TO CATCH UP WITH AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH BY SUN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO JAMAICA. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS THE WAVE SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE CONTINUING WESTWARD TO CENTRAL AMERICA TUE AND WED. THE ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE IS ALSO FANNING OUT OVER THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 17N. NO MAJOR CHANGE OF MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH LIGHT 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS N OF 17N AND EASTERLY 10-15 KT S OF 17N. 5-7 FT SEAS IN NE-E SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT LATE MON THROUGH WED. SOUTHWEST N ATLC... A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NE TO ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA TO NEAR 23N68W. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE... RIDGING IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE N WATERS AS A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING S OF 31N WITH NEW SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN ITS VICINITY. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO THE E PORTION OF GRAND BAHAMA SAT AFTERNOON...PUSHING E OF THE AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS OVER THE FAR N WATERS. RIDGING WILL THEN HOLD IN PLACE MON THROUGH AT LEAST WED. EXPECT MAINLY VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N...WITH EASTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS S OF 27N... EXCEPT 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY