000 AGXX40 KNHC 161828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N97W DOMINATES THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL MOVE S ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT KEEPING WINDS FROM THE W AND NW TO 20 KT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS. ON WED...A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL GULF AND THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE E OF 90W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW SE RETURN FLOW TO ESTABLISH AND INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF BY TUE NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SLY FLOW W OF 90W AND SE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE E OF 90W THU AND FRI. SW N ATLC... A COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY MOVE E TO 31N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD WED INTO THU. ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS SHOWED SW WINDS NEAR TO 35 KT E OF THE FRONT AND NEAR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LOCATED WITHIN 70 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH FORECAST TO LIFT N OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. S TO SW WINDS...BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE E AND A LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS TO THE W...ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE REGION MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE E ALONG 29N ON THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC ... THE FIRST IDENTIFIED TROPICAL WAVE OF THE SEASON CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD AND PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM 10N44W TO 2N48W. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE 1250 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE N. FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 12N LATE TONIGHT AND TUE AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU MERGING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...THEN MOVE W AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS TO THE N BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW WILL LIE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE BUT A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA PRODUCING LIGHT W TO NW WINDS N OF 20N...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR