000
AGXX40 KNHC 151825
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS FL TO 22N90W WILL MOVE SE 
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NW TO N WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE CAN 
BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 6 
FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PRESENTLY NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
AFFECTING S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. 
REINFORCING FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE NE GULF 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MON EVENING KEEPING WINDS FROM THE W AND 
NW TO 20 KT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF THROUGH TUE. 
THEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT AND 
PASS INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY THU ALLOWING SE RETURN FLOW TO 
ESTABLISH AND INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF BY THE EARLY 
WED MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN THIS RIDGING 
AND TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCREASES.

SW N ATLC...
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. A BAND 
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY AFFECTING N 
OF 27N W OF 76W. A RECENT WINDSAT PASS AND BUOY 41010 SHOWED SW 
WINDS UP TO 30 KT IN THIS AREA LIKELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 
TSTMS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO A POSITION FROM 31N78W TO 27N79W 
TO WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT...AND WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF 
FRONTAL TROUGHS THROUGH TUE BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA BY LATE 
WED. S TO SW WINDS...BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE E AND A LOW 
PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS TO THE W...ARE FORECAST TO 
DOMINATE THE REGION MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL 
BUILD IN FROM THE E ALONG 29N ON THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO 
SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC ...
THE FIRST IDENTIFIED TROPICAL WAVE OF THE SEASON WAS ANALYZED ON 
THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP EXTENDING FROM 7N38N TO 2N42W. THIS 
WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND HAS 
GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE LONG TERM SATELLITE LOOPS WITH THE WAVE 
EMERGING FROM AFRICA ON MAY 12. THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS 
REVEALS AN AREA OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE 
AND A RIDGE TO THE N ALONG 35W. FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT 
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL N 
ATLC S OF 12N TUE THROUGH WED AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU 
WHERE IT WILL MEET UP WITH THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY LIES FROM 
THE MONA PASSAGE TO LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA COLOMBIA. A DIFFLUENT 
PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG 
WITH A WINDSAT PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT NEAR THE 
AREAS OF CONVECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. 

A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
TONIGHT INTO MON THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE BUT A FRONTAL TROUGH 
WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA PRODUCING LIGHT W TO NW WINDS N OF 
20N...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD 
SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR NE CARIBBEAN SEA 
TONIGHT THROUGH WED BRINGING A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS. 
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE N OF 
THE AREA LATE WED TO THU WITH SE RETURN FLOW THEN BECOMING FRESH 
IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. 

WARNINGS..

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER GR