000 AGXX40 KNHC 121830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED N OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N49W TO 22N64W TO 22N70W WITH FRESH WINDS PREVAILING N OF 25N OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 75W. NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS LOW IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WEAKENING FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI. BY SAT...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES BEGINS TO MOVE NE...DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND WITH THE SWELLS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A NEW FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST MON NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA STARTING SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THERE IS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TRADES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FRI. FRESH TRADES ARE ALSO IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE WESTERN EXTEND OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE E OVER THE WEEKEND AND INCREASE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND LINGERING TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHICH WILL FRESHEN THE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE 1018 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH FRESH SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY...ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE FAR SE GULF EARLY MON. FRESH 20 KT WINDS WILL BE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT THEN WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SAT NIGHT. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL