000 AGXX40 KNHC 111907 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... TROUGHING JUST W OF THE AZORES HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF 50W AND PROVIDING FRESH TRADES OVER FAR SOUTHERN HIGH SEAS WATERS. OVER THE SW N ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA AT 36N61W HAS SENT A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS AND NOW LIES FROM 31N52W TO 24N60W TO 22N70W. AN ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS E OF THE FRONT ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 20 KT BUT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND LOWER PRES AMPLIFIED TO ITS W. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED LOW N OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA AND IS SUPPLYING NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG W WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING OFF TO FRESH WINDS THROUGH FRI AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF A SECOND VORT WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEP LAYERED LOW PASSES JUST N OF THE AREA. BY SAT...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES BEGINS TO MOVE NE AND WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER. THE GFS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY SUN NIGHT...A NEW FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST. CARIBBEAN... WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DISRUPTED BY TROUGHING JUST W OF THE AZORES AND BUILDING TROUGHING N OF THE CARIBBEAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES HAS SHRUNK TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGHING NEAR THE AZORES CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW JUST N OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SUPPLY MORE FUEL FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR THESE FRONTAL REMNANTS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW N ATLC LOW...THU THROUGH SAT. THE GFS HAS A SWELL TRAIN ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W THU... AND PROGRESS TO THE SE CARIBBEAN FRI...THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUN. GULF OF MEXICO... THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT THROUGH THU OVER THE GULF WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF AND LOWER PRES OVER SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO FORCING FRESH TO STRONG SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. BY SAT...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NW GULF AND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH PRES CENTER AND DISPLACE IT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...WEAKENING THE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRI. BY SUN...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER/FORMOSA