000 AGXX40 KNHC 100705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... WEAKENING TROUGHING JUST W OF THE AZORES AND A BROAD BUT DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA HAVE DISRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE TRADES. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING JUST W OF THE AZORES WILL FINALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF 50W AND FRESH TRADES TO RETURN TO FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. TWO COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRES LIE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN BOUNDARY...FROM 31N60W TO 27N65W TO 27N75W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE DYING COLD FRONT TO ITS E TODAY. WINDS E OF THE MERGED FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH PRES BUILDING TO ITS E INCREASES. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW N OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SLIP S AND APPROACH BERMUDA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL SUPPLY NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG W WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WED BEFORE BACKING OFF TO FRESH WINDS THROUGH FRI. BY SAT...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES BEGINS TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WINDS DIMINISH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT HERE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE COMPLICATED PATTERN WITH VORTICITY CENTERS WHICH FUJIWARA ABOUT THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THE GFS LOOKS REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN... THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS SHRUNK IN AREA OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE N HAS BEEN DISRUPTED. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING NEAR THE AZORES IS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS FROM THE SW TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW JUST N OF THE SW N ATLC WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SUPPLY MORE FUEL FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR THIS LINGERING BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW N ATLC LOW THU THROUGH SAT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF COMES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT WHEN THE GFS BUILDS FRESH SE FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH THE WIND. THE UKMET SIDES WITH THE STRONGER GFS. MEANWHILE...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN STATIONARY HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY THROUGH THU. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRESH E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH THU. SAW NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE GFS FORECAST HERE. GULF OF MEXICO... THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT THROUGH THU OVER THE GULF WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF AND LOWER PRES OVER SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO FORCING FRESH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY SAT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH PRES CENTER AND DISPLACE IT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...WEAKENING THE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRI AND SAT. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HERE. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER