000 AGXX40 KNHC 091802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... A SERIES OF FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ZONE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE TRADES THROUGH TUE. THE FIRST FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 26N E OF 69W WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT IS SWEEPING INTO THE AREA N OF 30N WITH ENHANCED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD E OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND TUE. WINDS E OF THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN TUE THROUGH WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. MEANWHILE...THE ANCHOR LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SLIDE S TOWARD BERMUDA...GENERATING 10-15 FT N SWELL ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FRESH NW WINDS TO THE NE PART WED AND THU. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW BY WED. THE ECMWF...STRONGER AT THE SURFACE AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAN OTHER MODELS...WAS DISCOUNTED AS AN OUTLIER. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS. CARIBBEAN... AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL SHRINK IN SIZE THROUGH TUE AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SW N ATLC. A FRONT SWEEPING N OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL DISPLACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WELL E OF THE AREA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TRIGGER ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TUE THROUGH THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN STATIONARY HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND AMPLIFYING TROUGHING ALONG 100W. GULF OF MEXICO... LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NE GULF. LOWER PRES OVER SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ENHANCE MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE WESTERN GULF WED AND THU AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES THU AND FRI... DISPLACING THE HIGH PRES CENTER SLIGHTLY SW AND WEAKENING WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL