000 AGXX40 KNHC 090654 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EDT MON MAY 09 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... THE WEAKENING TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A SERIES OF FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE SW N ATLC WILL DISRUPT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE TRADES THROUGH TUE. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL FINALLY BREAK UP AROUND TUE...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF E OF 50W AND FRESH TRADES TO RETURN TO FAR SOUTHERN HIGH SEAS WATERS E OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE WED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON FRI WHILE THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING IN THE SW N ATLC AMPLIFIES. THE FIRST FRONT CURRENTLY LIES FROM 31N58W TO 25N70W. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES E AND DISSIPATES LATE TODAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL ENTER N WATERS W OF 65W LATER TODAY AND PASS SOUTHWARD JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS TUE. WINDS E OF THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN TUE INTO WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH PRES BUILDING TO ITS E INCREASES. MEANWHILE...THE ANCHOR LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP S AND APPROACH BERMUDA. THE LOW WILL SUPPLY NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD FRESH WINDS TO THE AREA WED AND THU. THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS ALOFT ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW BY WED. THE 00Z ECMWF IS STRONGER AT THE SURFACE AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY THAN THE OTHER MODELS. ITS STRONG SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED AS AN OUTLIER. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS AND THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. CARIBBEAN... THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL SHRINK IN AREA THROUGH THROUGH TUE AS DEEP LAYER TROUGHING AMPLIFIES OVER THE SW N ATLC...BRINGING A SERIES OF FRONTS N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND DISPLACING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WELL E OF THE AREA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SUPPLY MORE FUEL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA...WITH A LINGERING REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WED THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN STATIONARY HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO TUE THROUGH THU. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRESH E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. SAW NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE GFS FORECAST HERE. GULF OF MEXICO... THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT THROUGH THU OVER THE GULF WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF AND LOWER PRES OVER SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO FORCING FRESH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE A NOTCH IN THE WESTERN GULF WED AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. BY FRI...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL DISPLACE THE HIGH PRES CENTER SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN THE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HERE. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER