000
AGXX40 KNHC 080654
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 08 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC...
THE PERSISTENT LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A SERIES OF FRONTS 
PASSING THROUGH THE SW N ATLC WILL DISRUPT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 
AND THE TRADES THROUGH TUE. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING IN THE 
TROPICAL ATLC WILL FINALLY BREAK UP AROUND TUE...ALLOWING THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF E OF 50W AND FRESH TRADES 
TO RETURN TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE 
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON THU WHILE THE DEEP LAYER 
TROUGHING IN THE SW N ATLC AMPLIFIES. THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY 
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS ALOFT 
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. AT THE SURFACE...THESE 
DIFFERENCES ARE REFLECTED AS MOSTLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL 
TIMING. THE FIRST FRONT CURRENTLY LIES FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS 
TO JUST W OF BERMUDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES E AND 
DISSIPATES LATE MON. A SECOND FRONT WILL ENTER N WATERS W OF 65W 
ON MON AND PASS SOUTHWARD JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS TUE. WINDS E OF 
THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN TUE INTO WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH PRES BUILDING TO ITS E INCREASES. 
MEANWHILE...THE ANCHOR LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS FORECAST 
TO SLIP S AND APPROACH BERMUDA. THE LOW WILL SUPPLY NORTHERLY 
SWELL IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD FRESH WINDS TO 
THE AREA WED AND THU. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE 
AGREEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE ECMWF CARRIES A 
STRONGER LOW PRES SYSTEM AND HAS STRONGER WINDS JUST E OF THE SW 
N ATLC ZONE ON WED. BOTH THE 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS 
KEEP THE LOW MORE TO THE N LIKE THE GFS AND ARE CLOSER TO ITS 
CENTRAL PRES. THE GFS FORECAST SEEMS ACCEPTABLE OVER THE ENTIRE 
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN...
FRESH TRADES SEEN IN THE 0124 UTC AND 0304 UTC ASCAT PASSES IN 
THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH BY TUE AS DEEP LAYER 
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES OVER THE SW N ATLC...BRINGING A SERIES OF 
FRONTS N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND DISPLACING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
WELL E OF THE AREA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF 
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS 
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SUPPLY MORE FUEL FOR PRECIPITATION 
OVER THE AREA...WITH A LINGERING REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER 
THE NE CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION 
TUE THROUGH THU. MEANWHILE...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE 
BETWEEN STATIONARY HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN 
MEXICO AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEXAS TUE 
THROUGH THU. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRESH E WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SAW NO REASON 
TO STRAY FROM THE GFS FORECAST HERE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT OVER THE GULF WITH 
HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF AND LOWER PRES OVER SOUTHERN U.S. 
PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO FORCING FRESH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE A 
NOTCH IN THE WESTERN GULF WED AND THU AS A SLOW MOVING COLD 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MODELS ARE 
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HERE.


WARNINGS..

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER