000 AGXX40 KNHC 070730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SAT MAY 07 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGH CENTER OF 1017 MB S OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 28N86W AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS IT MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING A GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE NE PORTION WHERE WINDS ARE W-NW 5-10 KT AND IN FAR NW GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WHERE WINDS ARE SE 15 KT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-6 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT MAINLY N OF 28N W OF 85W AND S OF 28N E OF 85W. THESE SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NOAA NWW3 GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO USE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT TO THE EASTERN GULF BY SAT WHERE IT SHOULD HOLD THROUGH WED. ON ITS FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY...THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BEGINNING TONIGHT W OF 94W INTO TUE...THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE NW GULF BY WED WITH MAX SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SW N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE CLOUD PRESENTATION REVEAL A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N78W SW TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM CLOSE TO 0200 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED S-SW WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT TO 75W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NW 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT E OF THE FRONT AND 3-5 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE A RATHER WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREDOMINATE WIND DIRECTION FROM NE-E AT 10-15 KT...EXCEPT E-SE 10-15 KT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND NE-E 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HAITI. SEAS ELSEWHERE AS REPORTED BY BUOYS 41043 AT 21N65W AND 41044 AT 22N59W ARE 3-5 FT. BUOY 41046 AT 23N69W IS REPORTING 5-7 FT SEAS DUE TO A LONG PERIOD NE SWELL. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO NW BAHAMAS AND WEAKEN TO SE FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM NEAR 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND BECOMING DIFFUSE TO S FLORIDA SUN AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS AND JUST E OF THE AREA ON MON. THE S-SW WINDS OF 20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE NW 10-15 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TO VARIABLE 5-10 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE NE WATERS ON MON...AND TO E AREA OF LATE ON MON. SW WINDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT N OF 27N...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE BRIEF IN DURATION WITH THE QUICK EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO E OF THE AREA LATER ON MON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-7 FT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MON. A SECONDARY NW SURGE WILL FUNNEL IN NW 20 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT IN A NW SWELL THERE LATE TUE AND TO 8-12 FT ON WED. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE NLY IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT MON...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS WHERE WINDS WILL VEER TO E TO S AT AROUND 10 KT LATE MON INTO TUE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS AS WEAK HIGH PRES DROPS S INTO THE AREA TO NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS BY LATE TUE NIGHT. WINDS THERE THEN BECOME N 10 KT ON WED AND NE TO E 10-15 KT BY LATE WED. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE 3-5 FT MON...THEN BY TUE AND WED SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT IN THE NE PORTION AS DESCRIBED BEFORE AND W OF 78W WHERE LOWER RANGES OF 1-2 FT ARE FORECAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDE WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE NE 20 KT WINDS WILL HOLD THROUGH MON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT INTO TUE. THE SECOND IS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA WHERE AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0200 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. HESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGHEST SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT ON THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THESE SEAS MAY BUILD TO 9 FT TODAY SAT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 6 FT MON AND TO 5 FT TUE AND WED. THE LONG PERIOD N SWELLS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC HAVE SUBSIDED TO 6 FT...AND WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 FT LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT N OF 19N BETWEEN HAITI AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE FORECAST BY THE NOAA WW3 GUIDANCE TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH WED. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 070730 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SAT MAY 07 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGH CENTER OF 1017 MB S OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 28N86W AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS IT MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING A GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE NE PORTION WHERE WINDS ARE W-NW 5-10 KT AND IN FAR NW GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WHERE WINDS ARE SE 15 KT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-6 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT MAINLY N OF 28N W OF 85W AND S OF 28N E OF 85W. THESE SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NOAA NWW3 GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO USE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT TO THE EASTERN GULF BY SAT WHERE IT SHOULD HOLD THROUGH WED. ON ITS FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY...THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BEGINNING TONIGHT W OF 94W INTO TUE...THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE NW GULF BY WED WITH MAX SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SW N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE CLOUD PRESENTATION REVEAL A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N78W SW TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM CLOSE TO 0200 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED S-SW WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT TO 75W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NW 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT E OF THE FRONT AND 3-5 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE A RATHER WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREDOMINATE WIND DIRECTION FROM NE-E AT 10-15 KT...EXCEPT E-SE 10-15 KT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND NE-E 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HAITI. SEAS ELSEWHERE AS REPORTED BY BUOYS 41043 AT 21N65W AND 41044 AT 22N59W ARE 3-5 FT. BUOY 41046 AT 23N69W IS REPORTING 5-7 FT SEAS DUE TO A LONG PERIOD NE SWELL. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO NW BAHAMAS AND WEAKEN TO SE FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM NEAR 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND BECOMING DIFFUSE TO S FLORIDA SUN AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS AND JUST E OF THE AREA ON MON. THE S-SW WINDS OF 20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE NW 10-15 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TO VARIABLE 5-10 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE NE WATERS ON MON...AND TO E AREA OF LATE ON MON. SW WINDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT N OF 27N...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE BRIEF IN DURATION WITH THE QUICK EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO E OF THE AREA LATER ON MON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-7 FT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MON. A SECONDARY NW SURGE WILL FUNNEL IN NW 20 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT IN A NW SWELL THERE LATE TUE AND TO 8-12 FT ON WED. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE NLY IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT MON...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS WHERE WINDS WILL VEER TO E TO S AT AROUND 10 KT LATE MON INTO TUE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS AS WEAK HIGH PRES DROPS S INTO THE AREA TO NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS BY LATE TUE NIGHT. WINDS THERE THEN BECOME N 10 KT ON WED AND NE TO E 10-15 KT BY LATE WED. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE 3-5 FT MON...THEN BY TUE AND WED SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT IN THE NE PORTION AS DESCRIBED BEFORE AND W OF 78W WHERE LOWER RANGES OF 1-2 FT ARE FORECAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDE WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE NE 20 KT WINDS WILL HOLD THROUGH MON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT INTO TUE. THE SECOND IS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA WHERE AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0200 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. HESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGHEST SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT ON THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THESE SEAS MAY BUILD TO 9 FT TODAY SAT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 6 FT MON AND TO 5 FT TUE AND WED. THE LONG PERIOD N SWELLS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC HAVE SUBSIDED TO 6 FT...AND WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 FT LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT N OF 19N BETWEEN HAITI AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE FORECAST BY THE NOAA WW3 GUIDANCE TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH WED. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE