000 AGXX40 KNHC 060705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR SE GULF WATERS YESTERDAY IS CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N86W. BUOY 42003 AT 26N86W SHOWS NE 5 KT WINDS...WHILE WINDS TO THE S OF THE FRONT ARE SE AT 10 KT. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING REPORTED AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING NE-E WINDS OF 5-10 KT N OF 26N AND E OF 91W...AND E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NE-E 10-15 KT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. THESE VALUES ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NOAA NWW3 GUIDANCE. WILL LEAN CLOSELY TO THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE REST OF THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE EVIDENT FROM 29N83W TO 25N85W. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR ITS VICINITY. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...AND WILL BECOME REDEFINED AS A HIGH CENTER OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT TO THE EASTERN GULF BY SAT WHERE IT SHOULD HOLD THROUGH TUE. ON ITS FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY...THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BEGINNING LATE FRI NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL SET UP A LARGE FETCH AREA THAT SHOULD BUILD MAX SEAS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST...UP TO 6 FT LATE SUN NIGHT AND TO 7 FT MON AND TUE. SW N ATLC... PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE CLOUD PRESENTATION REVEAL A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST OVER BERMUDA SW TO NEAR 28N69W TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE TO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO THE N OF THE FRONT AND W TO 75W...WHILE WINDS BETWEEN 75W AND 79W ARE NOW NE-E 10 KT AND SE 10 KT W OF 79W. SEAS ARE 6-8 FT IN NE SWELL N OF THE FRONT ...HOWEVER...LOWER SEAS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 75W AND 79W IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT AND 2-4 FT IN A NE SWELL W OF 79W. THE 6-8 FT SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NE SWELLS PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA FROM WELL N OF THE REGION SUBSIDE. MODELS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE REST WASHES OUT. ELSEWHERE...THE PRELIM PRES ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES REMAINS RATHER WEAK. BOTH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXCEPT NE 20-25 KT NEAR AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND E-SE 10-15 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS EXCEPT 5-7 FT IN A N SWELL OVER THE NE PORTION...AND 3-5 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NE OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO NW BAHAMAS AND WEAKEN TO SE FLORIDA BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN FROM NEAR 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND BECOMING DIFFUSE TO S FLORIDA SUN AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS AND JUST E OF THE AREA ON MON. S WINDS OF 20 KT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT N OF 27N ON SAT...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NW-N 10-15 KT N OF ABOUT 27N...BUT QUICKLY SHIFT E OF THE AREA WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE NE WATERS ON MON...AND TO E AREA OF LATE ON MON. SW WINDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT N OF 27N. THIS IS LESS THAN 20-25 KT THE GFS WAS DEPICTING 24 HOURS AGO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MON. A SECONDARY NW SURGE WILL FUNNEL IN NW 20 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9 FT IN A NW SWELL THERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE NLY IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT MON...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS WHERE WINDS WILL VEER TO E TO S AT AROUND 10 KT LATE MON INTO TUE AS HIGH PRES DROPS S TO NEAR 31N75W TUE. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE 3-5 FT MON...THEN ON TUE SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT IN THE NE PORTION AS DESCRIBED BEFORE AND W OF 76W WHERE LOWER RANGES OF 1-3 FT ARE FORECAST WITH THE HIGH CENTER BEING NEAR 31N75W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE REGION THROUGH TUE WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE NE 20 KT WINDS WILL HOLD THROUGH MON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT INTO TUE. THE SECOND IS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA WHERE A COUPLE OF RECENT SHIP REPORT REVEAL NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGHEST SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT ON THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THESE SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY ON SAT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 6 FT MON AND TO 5 FT TUE. THE LONG PERIOD N SWELLS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC HAVE SUBSIDED TO 6 FT...AND WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 FT LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT N OF 19N BETWEEN HAITI AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE FORECAST BY THE NOAA WW3 GUIDANCE TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE