000 AGXX40 KNHC 050729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NOW VERY WEAK DEFINED COLD FRONT IDENTIFIED AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N89W WHERE IT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0230 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED GENERALLY NE WINDS OF 15 KT N OF THE FRONT E OF 90W...AND E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NE-E 10-15 KT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST BUOY REPORTS SHOWED HIGHEST SEAS BEING IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT IN THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE GULF FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 96W AND 93W. ELSEWHERE BUOY REPORTS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEAS TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SWD E OF 89W. AS THIS HAPPENS...HIGH PRES OVER THE REST OF THE GULF WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS THEN GRADUALLY MOVE E THROUGH MON. THIS WILL THEN ALLOW FOR SLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF WITH WINDS THERE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BEGINNING FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON. SW N ATLC... PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG WITH A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEAL A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N74W TO 28N78W...THEN CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO VERO BEACH FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRES COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE N-NE 15-20 KT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT IN A FEW HOURS. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N72W TO S FLORIDA THIS MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE FROM 30N65W TO 26N70W BY FRI MORNING. NE SWELLS ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO MAX OUT TO 7 FT ARE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD LOW PRES OF 1008 MB E OF THE AREA NEAR 29N53W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE PULLING OFF TO THE E. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE NW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...THEN SLIDE TO THE FAR NE WATERS FRI NIGHT...AND TO E OF AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST EARLY ON SAT...REACH FROM 31N66W TO NEAR 26N72W AND AS A DISSIPATING FRONT TO S FLORIDA BY SUN MORNING. S WINDS OF 20 KT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS N OF 27N ON SAT...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FRONT MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE ON SAT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NW-N AT ABOUT 15 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...THIS ONE APPEARS WILL BE STRONGER ...IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON SUN...AND INTO THE NE PORTION ON MON AS LOW PRES N OF THE AREA INTENSIFIES. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT N OF 28N...AND TO NW 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TO 74W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT. WINDS ELSEWHERE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHTER WITH LOW SEA STATE UNDER A WEAK PRES PATTERN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA HAS WEAKENED SOME AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WITH THE 20 KT TRADES CONFINED TO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT MOVES E AND ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRES BUILDS NE OF THE AREA RESULTING IN WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON. WINDS THEN DECREASE ON MON AS THE ONCE AGAIN THE RIDGE MOVES E AND ANOTHER COLD MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ATLC WATERS. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE