000 AGXX40 KNHC 281859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT THU APR 28 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A 1031 MB HIGH CENTER JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N57W WITH A RIDGE SW TO S FLORIDA. THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA'S PRES GRADIENT AND THUS WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT. BUOYS...ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS OBSERVATIONS...HAVE BEEN AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING E TO SE 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 25N E OF BAHAMAS AND E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 27N E OF 77W EXCEPT W OF 77W WHERE LIGHTER SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NOTED AND OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WHERE ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING AND BUOYS JUST N OF THE AREA OFF THE SE U.S COAST ARE REPORTING S-SW WINDS OF 20 KT. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 10 FT IN A LONG PERIOD N SWELL AS REPORTED BY BUOY 41043 AT 21N65W. SEA STATE ANALYSES FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT W OF 79W WHERE THEY ARE MUCH LOWER...IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE S OF 27N...AND 3-5 FT N OF 27N. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MOVING SEWD OVER SE GEORGIA AND APPROACHING THE FAR NW WATERS AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE 1031 MB HIGH MOVE E THROUGH FRI AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF. PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME AS LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FROM THIS MORNING IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH NEAR FUTURE SCENARIO SHAPING UP WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THIS ZONE THIS EVENING WITH THE S-SW 20 KT WINDS AHEAD OF IT SPREADING EWD. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO NW-N 15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH FRI AS THE RIDGE AHEAD PULLS OFF TO THE E. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI MORNING...FROM 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA FRI NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE S OF 26N LATE SAT WHILE ITS NORTHERN PORTION REACHES THE NE WATERS AND MOVES E OF AREA SUN. A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUN AND MON. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL RESPONSE BY GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT BY FRI NIGHT...AND TO NE-E SAT THROUGH MON AT 10-15 KT...WHILE SHIFTING TO SE-S OVER THE FAR NW WATERS MON AND TUE AS THE HIGH PRES AREA CONTINUES TO SLIDE EWD. E WINDS WILL BE HIGHER...IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS NEAR EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA SUN THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MOSTLY E 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF ABOUT 12N...AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE VERY PERSISTENT N OF 14N AS SEEN IN BUOY REPORTS AND IN A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INDICATED SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AGAIN HAS BEEN SHOWING VERY DENSE SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA STREAMING N AND NW ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND THE 3-5 NM RANGE ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THESE WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MAX SEAS ARE ABOUT 7 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND 7-9 FT IN THE NW SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS UP TO 10 FT ARE EVIDENT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF ABOUT 14N AS NOTED BY BUOY 41101 NEAR 14.5N56W. AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH. WINDS ELSEWHERE DIMINISH THU THROUGH SAT AS THE ATLC HIGH RETREATS EASTWARD. NEW HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS INTO THE NW ATLC SAT THROUGH MON...THEN SHIFTS E LATER MON AND TUE. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE GRADIENT SOME OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ALLOW FOR NE 20 KT TO KICK UP ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. E WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE NOT AS TIGHT AS RECENTLY OBSERVED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5-6 FT IN THAT ZONE FOR SAT THROUGH TUE. GULF OF MEXICO... PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA SW TO 25N91W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY SW TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 21N94W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1542 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NE 20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT AND N OF THE LOW TO 29N...AND NW WINDS OF 25 KT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE MEXICAN COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAKENING ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT N OF 26N. WINDS E OF THE FRONT ARE S-SW 15-20 KT N OF 28N...AND SE-S 10-15 KT S OF 28N. WINDS W OF THE FRONT N OF 28N ARE NE 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE MAXING OUT TO 9-10 FT W OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR NW GULF WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL REACH SW FLORIDA ON FRI...AND EXTENDS TO VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS IT WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS THROUGHOUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SLIDING EWD. AS THIS HAPPENS...RETURN SLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH SUN AND ABATED LATE SUN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES EASTERN TEXAS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS COLD FRONTS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE TEXAS SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING...AND REACH FROM NEAR SW LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO BY LATE MON...AND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT EXPERIENCED WITH THE CURRENT FRONT...ALTHOUGH MODEL DIFFER WITH THE WINDS IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE