000 AGXX40 KNHC 270654 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH E OF BERMUDA WILL BE NUDGED TO THE E STARTING THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N FL COAST. CURRENTLY...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A SIZABLE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS PRIMARILY E OF 70W AS SEEN IN THE 0154 UTC AND 0014 UTC ASCAT PASSES AND NUMEROUS SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFS ARE ALL REASONABLY WELL-INITIALIZED WITH THE WIND FIELD. THESE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SW N ATLC OFFSHORE ZONE THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...WITH THE 00Z GFS REMAINING SLIGHTLY FASTER CARRYING THE FRONT EASTWARD OVER N WATERS. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE ECMWF BECOMES THE OUTLIER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY FRI BECAUSE IT ALLOWS MORE ENERGY TO DIVE INTO THE BACK OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH THAT DETERS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE HERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH N OF THE AREA HAS INCREASED THE N TO S PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO FRI. BUOY 42060 REPORTED 21 KT AT 0600 UTC AND THIS SPEED CORRESPONDED WELL TO THE 0152 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TODAY IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR FRESH TO STRONG SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. BUOY 42056 REPORTED 23 KT AT 0600 UTC AND THE 0334 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25 KT WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BELIZE AND THE NE YUCATAN. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO COMPARED TO RUNS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES A SLOWER OUTLIER STARTING FRI. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE 00Z GFS IS PREFERRED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE LATE SAT...HIGH PRES IS AGAIN ALLOWED TO BUILD N OF THE NE CARIBBEAN AND 20 KT WINDS RETURN TO THAT AREA. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 0336 UTC ASCAT SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE GULF AND NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS IN THE WESTERN GULF SHOW SIMILAR CONDITIONS. THE 00Z MODELS ARE WELL-INITIALIZED WITH THE WIND FIELD HERE AND HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TODAY. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PICK UP IN THE WESTERN GULF ON FRI. BY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT...THE ECMWF BECOMES A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 00Z GFS IS PREFERRED WITH THIS FRONT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING FRESH SE RETURN FLOW BACK TO THE NE GULF BY FRI EVENING AND BOTH CARRY THE NEXT COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER