000 AGXX40 KNHC 261858 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A 1032 MB HIGH CENTER JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N57W WITH A RIDGE W TO THE SE U.S. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THIS AREA AS IT MAINTAINS ITS GRASP ON THE WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT. BUOYS... ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS...FROM ACROSS THE AREA ARE REPORTING E TO SE 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 27N E OF BAHAMAS AND E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT W OF 79W WHERE A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SUPPORTED THESE OBSERVATIONS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N TO 27N WHERE THE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS OF 10 FT IN A N SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 64W-70W. SEA STATE ANALYSES FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT W OF 79W WHERE THEY ARE MUCH LOWER...IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE S OF 26N...AND 3-5 FT N OF 26N. LATEST VIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING NWD IN THE NW PORTION...AND OTHERS MOVING NW TO THE ESE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W AS MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO AID THIS ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA N AND E CENTRAL COASTS. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD BEGINNING ON WED AS A COLD FRONT FRONT MAKES HEADWAY THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME AS LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FROM THIS MORNING IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH NEAR FUTURE SCENARIO SHAPING UP WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THIS ZONE DURING EARLY THU EVENING. AS THE RIDGE PULLS TO THE E IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THU NIGHT...WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS WILL BECOME S-SW AT 15-20 KT AND BRIEFLY NW-N 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO THE N-NE FRI AND NE-E SAT AND SUN...WITH WINDS E-SE 10-15 KT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION N OF 27N BY SUN. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR NE WATERS ON SAT AND TO NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT LOSES ITS CHARACTERISTICS SW FROM THERE BY SUN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR NE WATERS AS IT DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING E OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA AGAIN AT THAT TIME. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MOSTLY E 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 16N...AND NE-E 20 KT WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE N OF 12N. A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INDICATED SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 29N W OF 84W. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING DISPLAYED THESE WINDS VERY WELL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A FEW SHIPS REPORTS FROM THE S CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA REVEALED NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT TO NEAR 25 KT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THESE WINDS PERHAPS A LITTLE LONGER FOR THIS FORECAST TIME PERIODS...MOST PROBABLY THROUGH WED NIGHT. MAX SEAS ARE ABOUT 7 OR 8 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...ABOUT 1 FT HIGHER THAN THE WAVEWATCH MODEL AND 7 FT IN THE NW SECTION NEAR THE COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS UP TO 9 FT ARE EVIDENT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF ABOUT 13N. SE WINDS EXPAND SOME ON THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS THERE THEN DIMINISH THU AS THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI. WINDS ELSEWHERE DIMINISH THU THROUGH SAT AS THE ATLC HIGH RETREATS EASTWARD. NEW HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS INTO THE NW ATLC SAT AND SUN THEN INCREASE THE GRADIENT SOME OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ALLOW FOR NE 20 KT TO KICK UP ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LIGHT E WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING FRI THROUGH SUN WITH SEAS SUBSIDING THERE TO 6 FT. GULF OF MEXICO... THE BUOY ARRAY FROM ACROSS THE GULF SHOWS SE WINDS OF 20 KT W OF 87W..AND SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT E OF 87W. SEAS ARE MAXING OUT TO 7 FT IN THE WESTERN PORTION W OF ABOUT 94W. A STRONG RIDGE ALONG 29N WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THU NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON WED AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF FRONT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ONCE IT MOVES OFF THE COAST...AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SE 20 KT WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BECOME SW AT 15-20 KT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU...THEN DISSIPATE FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI. NEW HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FRI AND SAT...AND TO OVER THE FAR NE WATERS BY SUN ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES WILL THEN DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ALONG OR NEAR THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SUN WITH. EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE CURRENT ONE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF ON SUN. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE