000 AGXX40 KNHC 260711 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH JUST W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE CONTINUING THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS PICKED UP BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE 00Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TODAY AND ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS SETTLED E OF BERMUDA AND IS EXPECTED STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE TODAY AND WED BEFORE BEING NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE E STARTING THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N FL COAST. CURRENTLY...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A SIZABLE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS PRIMARILY E OF 70W. THE GFS IS THE BEST INITIALIZED OF THE 00Z MODELS WITH THIS AREA OF WIND AND WILL BE PREFERRED THROUGH WED. THE GFS...WHICH WAS A FAST OUTLIER THIS TIME YESTERDAY...IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS IS STILL THE FASTEST MODEL TO CARRY THE COLD FRONT INTO THE SW N ATLC. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF AND ITS 12Z ENSEMBLE MEAN...SO THE 00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED OVER THE SW N ATLC THU THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AS EVIDENCED BY THE 0214 UTC ASCAT PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SE RETURN FLOW IS TAKING HOLD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST AND INCREASES THE E TO W PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE GULF BY THU...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER 00Z ECMWF PREFERRED FOR THE IMPACT OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE AREA. THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH N OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE N TO S PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO FRI. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 0358 UTC ASCAT SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH S-SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS AT 25 KT IN THE NW AND NORTHERN MIDDLE GULF...BUT MOST OF THESE STATIONS ARE PLATFORMS WELL ABOVE THE 10 METER HEIGHT CRITERIA FOR THE OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE ASSESSMENT OF THE WIND FIELD SEEN IN THE ASCAT PASS. THESE MODELS AGREE ON INCREASING WINDS TO STRONG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE TEXAS COAST MIDDAY WED. THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN A FAST OUTLIER THIS TIME YESTERDAY...HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE GULF. THE GFS NOW WAITS UNTIL THU TO RUN AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS CARRYING THE FRONT THROUGH THE NE GULF. ITS CORRESPONDING 00Z GEFS MEAN IS SLOWER LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. THEREFORE...THE ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED WITH THIS COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SE GULF ON FRI. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PICK UP IN THE WESTERN GULF ON FRI. BY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT...THE 00Z ECMWF LOWERS HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND CARRIES STRONGER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE 00Z GFS/UKMET WERE PREFERRED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD TO KEEP IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER