000 AGXX40 KNHC 250652 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EDT MON APR 25 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE 0236 UTC ASCAT PASS NO LONGER SHOWS A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND ONLY CARRIES ONE BARB TO 25 KT ON THE NORTHERN END OF THAT TROUGH. THE 00Z MODELS AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ALSO AGREE ON CARRYING THE REMNANT TROUGH INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT/EARLY TUE WITH THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE BAHAMAS AND W OF THE BAHAMAS BEING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND A CHANCE IN WIND DIRECTION FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SETTLING E OF BERMUDA AND STRENGTHENING TUE AND WED BEFORE BEING NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE E STARTING THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N FL COAST. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST AMONG THE 00Z GUIDANCE WITH THIS FRONT AND ITS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED IN THE SW N ATLC ZONE BY THU AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF BECOMES A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND SLOWER UKMET FRI AND SAT. IT ALLOWS THE FRONT TO CLEAR S FLORIDA BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF WAS PREFERRED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC WEAKENED THE TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ACCORDING TO THE 0234 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE AND THE BUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY TUE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST AND INCREASES THE E TO W PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE 00Z GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH THU...WITH THE ECMWF BECOMING A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND SLOWER UKMET FRI AND SAT AND ALLOWING THE FRONT TO CLEAR S FLORIDA BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF WAS PREFERRED FOR THE IMPACT OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 0238 UTC ASCAT AND 0016 UTC WINDSAT PASSES ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THESE CONDITIONS WHILE THE 00Z UKMET IS WEAK WITH THE WINDS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST UNTIL WED WHEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS FRONT THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE GFS ALSO BUILDS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT/THU MORNING THAN THESE MODELS AND BECOMES A FAST OUTLIER AMONG THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE WITH THE FRONT BY THU. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF/UKMET FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH THU...WITH THE ECMWF BECOMING A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND SLOWER UKMET FRI AND SAT AND ALLOWING THE FRONT TO CLEAR S FLORIDA BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF WAS PREFERRED WITH THE FRONT FRI AND SAT. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER