000 AGXX40 KNHC 140518 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT THU APR 14 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT IS DRIFTING SE OVER THE FL STRAITS AND ALONG THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA ATTM. THE FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY...BUT THE PORTION NEAR THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA MAY PERSIST IN THE FORM OF A N-S ORIENTATED TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE POST FRONTAL NE-SW RIDGE CONTINUES WITH THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THIS SE RETURN FLOW SHOULD SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. THE NEXT FRONT REACHES TX COAST FRI MORNING...WITH THE FRONT RACING E TO A PSN FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT. THEREAFTER THE FRONT SLOWS...AS DID THE CURRENT FRONT...WITH THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND YUCATAN PASSAGE LATE SUN. MOISTURE GUIDANCE AGAIN HANGS ONTO THE W SEGMENT OF THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND E BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO MON AS SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS ENTIRE GULF. SOUTHWEST N ATLC W OF 55W... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO 25N80W. THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC WATERS NE AND SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER ALONG ROUGHLY 31N68W TO 26N71W TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS SW FROM BERMUDA TO SE FL BY FRI NIGHT. SLY FLOW INCREASES N OF THE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GA COAST SAT NIGHT...NOTING THAT TIMING OF FRONT HAS NOW BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OF GUIDANCE. THE PATTERN REPEATS WITH THIS SECOND FRONT STALLING FROM ABOUT 31N72W TO 27N80W SUN NIGHT. LOOKING FURTHER E...AND UPPER DISTURBANCE IS SPINNING NEAR 25N66W AND ANOTHER NEAR 23N62W. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP N OF 24N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W FRI...AND MEANDER THROUGH MON. A SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH FEATURE IS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE E OF THE AREA ALONG 42W. THE ASSOCIATED NW FLOW WILL BECOMES E TO SE FLOW TO THE E OF THE NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG 59W...AND WILL SUPPORT 15 TO 20 KT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 55W. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... DENSE CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 71W AND ACROSS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE N OF 13N... WITH A BROAD N-S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. EXPECTING THIS CARIBBEAN TROUGH TO MEANDER THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE. WINDS AT 15-20 KT IN CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH RESULTING IN SEAS OCCASIONALLY TO ABOUT 7 FT. A SECOND LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE LEEWARDS TONIGHT AND FRI THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY NE OF THE ISLANDS FRI NIGHT THEN MEANDER INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECTING WINDS OF 15-20 KT MAINLY JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LIGHTER E TRADES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON