000 AGXX40 KNHC 120531 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE ATLC RIDGE IS RETRACTING E AS THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE PRECEDED BY A WINDS SHIFT ALONG A TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT HAS DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT E OF FRONT WHILE NLY WINDS ALONG THE TX COAST WERE AT 20 KT 00 UTC...BUT ARE MUCH LESS ATTM. STILL EXPECTING POST FRONTAL WINDS TO CLOCK TO NE THIS MORNING CONTINUING AT 15-20 KT...LESS THAN GFS/GFSP GUIDANCE...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AND CLOCK TO SE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EXTREME SE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE GUIDANCE HANGS ONTO SOME FRONTAL REMNANTS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED IN THE FORM OF A N-S ORIENTATED TROUGH WHICH IS DEPICTED ON GRAPHICS. RIDGE WILL RETURN QUICKLY DISSECTING THE GULF FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT...WITH SE RETURN FLOW SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE THU. THE NEXT FRONT REACHES TX COAST FRI NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING THIS SECOND FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM FL BIG BEND TO NW BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT...AND STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS WITH THE W PORTION MOVING BACK N ON SAT NIGHT. SOUTHWEST N ATLC W OF 55W... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL WITH SLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE FL COAST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SLOW WED REACHING FROM 31N70W TO NW BAHAMAS EARLY THU. THEREAFTER THE N PORTION OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENS FROM BERMUDA TO 25N69W THROUGH LATE FRI. MOISTURE REMNANTS OF THE W SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE N IN THE SLY FLOW ALONG THE FL COAST THU NIGHT AND FRI. THESE SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT FRI NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT MOVING OFF GA COAST AROUND SUNSET SAT. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP N OF 24N ALONG 58W FRI AND DRIFT W SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL NOTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE WITH A A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN...AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR 22N61W. EXPECTING THIS SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE TODAY...BUT EXPECT THE CARIBBEAN TROUGH TO MEANDER THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. LIGHTER E TRADES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON