000 AGXX40 KNHC 110515 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FL AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS WITH WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERS OCCASIONALLY FORMING ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF WATERS OR OVER N FL. SE-S WINDS CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT OVER THE WATERS W OF ABOUT 88W. HOWEVER SE WINDS CURRENTLY AT 25 KT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GFS SUGGESTING FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 25 KT OVER THE WATERS S OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...ALL WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT NOTED ELSEWHERE EXCEPT VARIABLE 5-10 KT NEAR RIDGE OR AROUND OCCASIONAL HIGH CENTER OVER THE NE PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL GUIDANCE NOW MOVING THE FRONT TO THE EXTREME SE WATERS TUE NIGHT. MOISTURE GUIDANCE STILL HANGING ONTO SOME FRONTAL REMNANTS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED ALONG A N-S ORIENTATED TROUGH. SLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME JUST AHEAD OF FRONT THIS MORNING WITH 15-20 KT NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY VEER TO THE NE AT 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT. RIDGE WILL RETURN QUICKLY DISSECTING THE GULF FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT WITH SE RETURN FLOW SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE THU. THE NEXT FRONT SEEMS TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SE ACROSS TX FRI WITH THE FRONT JUST SLIPPING INTO THE NW WATERS FRI NIGHT...TIMING LIKELY TO CHANGE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC W OF 55W... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N FL SE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO 26N65W WHERE IT WEAKENS AND LIES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 26N72W AND 31N75W. SLIGHT EVIDENCE OF A FRONTAL WAVE LOW ALONG FRONT NEAR 29N61W...BUT IT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY BE ABOVE THE SURFACE. NE FLOW W OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER WATERS S OF BERMUDA THIS MORNING WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING E OF 65W LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE TONIGHT. RIDGE BUILDS FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL TONIGHT WITH SLY FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST TUE MORNING...REACHING FROM 31N73W TO THE NW BAHAMAS WED. THE FRONT SLOWS THEREAFTER AND REACHES ALONG ABOUT 67W FRI BEFORE STALLING AND THEN RETURNING W FRI NIGHT. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING A FRONTAL WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE FL AROUND SUNSET TUE...THEN MOVING E ACROSS THE EXTREME N BAHAMAS EARLY WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL NOTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE CARIBBEAN TO 55W. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. NE-E TRADES ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE AT 20 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. LIGHTER E TRADES CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH PERIOD. WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS 5 FT OR LESS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BY TUE NIGHT. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON