000 AGXX40 KNHC 100520 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FL AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS WITH WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERS OCCASIONALLY FORMING ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF WATERS. SE-S WINDS CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT OVER THE WATERS W OF 88W...AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT VARIABLE 5-10 KT NEAR RIDGE AND/OR OCCASIONAL HIGH CENTER OVER THE NE PART. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TILL A COLD FRONT REACHES TX COAST MON AFTERNOON...NOTING THAT THIS IS ABOUT 6-9 HOURS LATER THAN SUGGESTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS THE FRONT WILL GO FURTHER E BEFORE STALLING ALONG A LINE FROM FL BIG BEND TO 25N90W TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AFTERNOON...THEN REACH THE SE WATERS TUE EVENING. RIDGE WILL RETURN QUICKLY AND SHIFT E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY WED WITH SE RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT ON THU... EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED NE-E 15-20 KT ALONG NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WED AND THU EVENINGS WITH MOISTURE GUIDANCE HANGING ONTO SOME FRONTAL REMNANTS NEAR YUCATAN PASSAGE AND PENINSULA THROUGH THU. SOUTHWEST N ATLC W OF 55W... A RIDGE EXTENDS W TO E ALONG 27N WITH A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT OVER THE N PART ALONG 31N61W TO 28N70W TO 31N78W. SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT CURRENTLY AT 15 KT S OF 31N. EACH MODEL RUN TAKES THIS FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SE AND LATEST PSN HAS FRONT FROM 31N55W TO 23N65W LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRES AT 33N65W SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N62W THIS MORNING REACHING NEAR 29N60W LATE TONIGHT...DRIFT E MON AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NE TUE BUT TRAILING FRONTAL REMNANTS SW TO NEAR 22N65W THROUGH LATE TUE. NE FLOW W OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER WATERS S OF BERMUDA EARLY MON...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING E OF 65W LATE MON... BUT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BETWEEN 65W-55W. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE GA COAST TUE MORNING STALLING ALONG 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE WED. POSSIBLY SEE A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG FRONT SE FL TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...HOPEFULLY WITH PRECIP. REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE CARIBBEAN TO 55W. NE-E TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT OVER S CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THU BUT ONLY ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. LIGHTER E TRADES CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH PERIOD. WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS 5 FT OR LESS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON